In this week’s edition: 

·                  US Stocks Decline Amid Escalating Trade Tensions, While European Markets See Mixed Performance 

·                  Gold Rebounds with 4.80% Weekly Gain as Trade Tensions and Weak US Fiscal Outlook Drive Safe-Haven Demand 

·                  Ghana’s Treasury Auction Oversubscribed by 7.63%, Though Yields Continue to Decline Across the Curve 

·                  MTNGH Drives Sharpest Weekly Market Pullback in Four Years; GSE-CI Falls to 29.97% YTD, Financial Stocks Index Up to 33.37%

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - May 26, 2025

AROUND THE GLOBE    

·                  US Manufacturing Activity Rebounds Sharply in May 

o        The S&P Global Flash US Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.3 in May 2025, the highest since February and beating expectations. The uptick reflected renewed production growth and a 15-month high in new orders. Inventory buildup and longer delivery times boosted the index, though employment declined again. Selling prices and input costs also surged at the fastest pace in over 18 months.  

·                  US New Home Sales Surge in April 

o        Sales of new single-family homes in the US jumped 10.9% in April 2025 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 743,000 units, beating expectations and hitting the highest level since February 2022. Strong gains were seen in the South and Midwest, while the Northeast declined. The median home price rose 0.8% to $407,200, with inventory at 8.1 months’ supply.  

·                  Eurozone Private Sector Activity Contracts in May 

o        The Eurozone Composite PMI dropped to 49.5 in May 2025 from 50.4 in April, marking the first private sector contraction this year and missing expectations of 50.7. Services declined to 48.9, while factory activity eased its fall to 49.4, the softest contraction in nearly three years. New orders fell amid tariff concerns, with business confidence hitting a 19-month low. 

·                  UK Private Sector Activity Contracts for Second Month in May 

o        The S&P Global UK Composite PMI edged up to 49.4 in May 2025 from 48.5 in April but remained below 50, signaling a second consecutive month of private sector contraction. Manufacturing activity fell sharply to 45.1, the worst in 19 months, while services saw a slight rebound. New orders dropped to a 2.5-year low amid rising global uncertainty and tariffs. Rising costs and weak demand led to the fastest job cuts in factories in five years. 

·                  Canadian Retail Sales Continue Upward Trend 

o        Canadian retail sales likely rose 0.5% month-on-month in April 2025, following a revised 0.8% gain in March to C$69.8 billion—the strongest growth this year. Gains were broad-based, led by motor vehicles and parts (+4.8%), clothing (+2.6%), furniture and electronics (+2.1%), and building materials (+2.6%). Gasoline and food retail sales declined amid lower prices. 

·                  Japan Inflation Steady at 3.6% in April 

o        Japan’s annual inflation held steady at 3.6% in April 2025, the lowest since December. Food price growth eased despite rice costs surging 94.8% year-on-year. Inflation moderated for clothing and education but rose for energy and services as subsidies tapered off. Core inflation climbed to a 27-month high of 3.5%, while monthly CPI increased 0.1%. 

GHANA  

·                  BoG Holds Policy Rate Steady at 28% 

o        The Bank of Ghana (BoG) maintained its policy rate at 28% during its latest meeting, signaling a continued focus on controlling inflation and stabilizing the cedi. The decision reflects cautious monetary policy amid ongoing economic challenges, aiming to balance growth support with price stability in the near term. 

·                   IMF to Disburse $360 Million to Ghana in June 2025 

o        The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is poised to release $360 million to Ghana in June 2025, pending approval by the IMF Executive Board on June 3. This disbursement follows a staff-level agreement on the fourth review of Ghana’s $3 billion Extended Credit Facility, supporting ongoing economic stabilization efforts in the country. 

AFRICA  

·                  South Africa Building Permits Decline 6.7% in March  

o        The value of building plans approved in South Africa dropped 6.7% year-on-year to ZAR 7.29 billion in March 2025. Non-residential permits led the decline, falling 17.3%, with shopping space down 21% and other structures plunging 46.5%. Approvals for additions dropped 8%, while residential permits saw a slight 0.7% decrease. 

·                  Kenyan Banks Intensify Auctions as Bad Loans Reach Sh717 Billion 

o        Kenyan banks have stepped up auctioning of assets to recover rising non-performing loans, which have surged to Sh717 billion. The increase in bad debts reflects growing credit risk amid economic challenges. Lenders are increasingly relying on asset sales to manage loan defaults and shore up balance sheets as the banking sector faces mounting pressure. 

·                  Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

·        US Stocks Close Lower as Investors Brace for High-Stakes Trade Negotiations Between the US and China in Geneva During the Weekend              

·        Gold Rebounds with a 2.61% Weekly Gain, Driven by Safe-Haven Demand After President Trump’s New Tariff Threat Earlier in the Week

·        Ghana’s Treasury Accepts All Bids at Auction but Sees a Slight 3.15% Undersubscription as Yields Continue to Decline Across the Curve

·        Bullish Sentiment in Ghanaian Equities Lifts the Broader Market; GSE-CI to Match the Financial Stocks Index at 31.29% vs. 31.85% YTD, respectively 

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - May 12, 2025

AROUND THE GLOBE   

·        Fed Holds Rates Steady, Warns of Inflation and Job Market Risks

o   The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% in May 2025, maintaining a cautious stance amid growing concerns over inflation and job market risks linked to Trump’s tariffs. Chair Powell emphasized patience, saying it’s too early to shift policy. While growth remains solid, policymakers flagged rising uncertainty and signaled a continued data-dependent approach.

·        U.S. and China Slash Tariffs, Pause Trade War for 90 Days

o   Following high-level talks in Geneva, the U.S. and China agreed to cut tariffs and pause new trade actions for 90 days. The U.S. will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China will cut its tariffs on U.S. imports from 125% to 10%, marking a significant step to ease trade tensions.

·        BoE Cuts Interest Rate to 4.25% Amid Disinflation Progress

o   The Bank of England (BoE) cut its policy rate by 25bps to 4.25% in May 2025, citing easing inflation and slowing growth. The split vote (5–4) reflected diverging views on the pace of easing. Inflation dipped to 2.6% in March, though a temporary rise is expected. The BoE signaled a cautious, data-driven path amid global uncertainty and softening demand.

·        China Consumer Prices Fall for Third Straight Month

o   China’s consumer prices declined 0.1% year-on-year in April 2025, marking the third month of deflation, amid trade tensions with the U.S., weak demand, and job uncertainty. Non-food prices were flat, while food costs fell less sharply. Core inflation held at 0.5%, and monthly CPI rose 0.1%, reversing three months of declines due to fresh food price rebounds.

·        Japan Current Account Surplus Rises in March on Strong Income and Exports

o   Japan recorded a current account surplus of JPY 3.68 trillion in March 2025, up from JPY 3.45 trillion a year earlier, matching forecasts. The surplus was driven by a higher goods trade surplus and a strong rise in primary income. However, deficits in services and secondary income widened. FY2024's surplus rose to JPY 30.38 trillion.

•  GHANA

·        Ghana Inflation Slows to 8-Month Low on Stronger Cedi

o   Ghana’s annual inflation rate fell for the fourth straight month to 21.2% in April 2025, the lowest since August 2024, as a firmer cedi helped ease price pressures. Food inflation slowed to 25% from 26.5%, while non-food inflation dipped to 17.9%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.8%.

·        S&P Upgrades Ghana’s Credit Rating to CCC+

o   S&P Global Ratings has upgraded Ghana’s credit rating from Selective Default (SD) to CCC+, following progress in debt restructuring and improving economic indicators. The upgrade reflects successful bilateral debt deals and positive IMF program reviews, boosting investor confidence, although vulnerabilities remain elevated.

• AFRICA

·        South Africa Manufacturing Contraction Eases in March

o   South Africa’s manufacturing output declined 0.8% year-on-year in March 2025, easing from February’s 3.2% drop and marking the mildest fall in five months. While key sectors like electrical machinery and chemicals remained weak, rebounds in glass, textiles, and footwear helped soften the downturn. On a quarterly basis, industrial output shrank 2.3% in Q1 2025.

·        Kenya’s GDP Growth Hits 1-Year High in Q4 2024

o   Kenya’s economy grew by 5.1% year-on-year in Q4 2024, the fastest pace in a year, up from 4.2% in Q3. The rebound was driven by gains in agriculture, services, and trade. Quarterly growth hit 1.8%, the strongest in two years. However, full-year GDP slowed to 4.7% due to political unrest and flood-related disruptions.

·        Senegal Inflation Falls for Second Straight Month in April

o   Senegal’s consumer prices dropped 0.2% year-on-year in April 2025, extending the deflation trend for a second month. The decline was driven by sharper falls in food (-1.2%) and communication (-8.8%) costs. However, prices rose in key sectors like healthcare and housing. Core inflation slowed to 1.8%, while monthly CPI fell 0.5%, matching March’s drop.

                  Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week’s edition: 

·        Global Stock Markets Rally as Easing U.S.-China Trade Tensions Boost Investor Sentiment    

·        Gold Falls 3.65% Weekly Amid Reduced Safe-Haven Demand from Improving Trade Outlook 

·        Ghana’s Treasury Auction Undersubscribed by 48.71% as Yields Continue to Decline Across the Curve 

·        Strong Performance of MTNGH Supports Broader Market; GSE-CI Outpaces Financial Stocks Index at 37.21% vs. 33.09% YTD, respectively

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Markets Update - May 19, 2025

AROUND THE GLOBE    

·        Moody's Downgrades US Credit Rating to Aa1 on Rising Debt Concerns 

o   Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating to Aa1 from Aaa on May 16, 2025, citing surging debt and interest costs. It projects federal debt will hit 134% of GDP by 2035. The outlook was changed to stable. Moody’s follows Fitch (2023) and S&P (2011) in removing the US’s top-tier credit rating.  

·        US Import Prices Edge Up Unexpectedly in April 

o   US import prices rose 0.1% in April 2025, defying forecasts of a 0.4% drop and reversing a revised 0.4% decline in March. Despite new 10% tariffs, prices for non-fuel imports rose 0.4%—the highest in a year—driven by capital goods and consumer products. Fuel import prices, however, dropped for the second straight month, down 2.6%.  

·        Eurozone Trade Surplus Hits Record €36.8 Billion in March 

o   The Eurozone posted a record trade surplus of €36.8 billion in March 2025, up from €22.8 billion a year earlier, driven by a 13.6% surge in exports, especially to the US ahead of new tariffs. EU exports jumped 15.2%, led by chemicals and machinery, while imports rose 10.4%, boosting the EU-wide trade surplus to €35.3 billion. 

·        UK Economy Posts Strongest Growth in Three Quarters 

o   The UK economy grew 0.7% in Q1 2025, beating expectations and marking the strongest pace in three quarters. Growth was driven by services and manufacturing, especially transport equipment and machinery. Investment surged, boosted by aircraft imports and ICT spending. Exports outpaced imports, aiding net trade. Household consumption edged up 0.2%. Year-on-year GDP growth stood at 1.3%. 

·        Russian Economy Slows Sharply in Q1 2025 

o   Russia’s GDP grew 1.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, down sharply from 5.4% a year earlier and below the economy ministry’s 1.7% forecast. It marks the weakest growth since Q2 2023. For 2025, the government expects 2.5% growth, while the central bank remains cautious, projecting an expansion of just 1% to 2%. 

·        Japan Economy Contracts in Q1 Amid Trade Woes 

o   Japan's GDP shrank 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2025, marking the first contraction in a year and worse than expected. Exports declined while imports surged, dragging growth. Private consumption and government spending stagnated, though business investment rose. Annualized GDP fell 0.7%, reversing Q4’s 2.4% gain, amid concerns over U.S. trade policy and weak demand from China. 

GHANA  

·        Ghana’s Fuel Bill Projected to Exceed $1 Billion in 2025, Warns Energy Minister 

o   Energy Minister John Jinapor has warned that Ghana’s fuel costs for thermal power generation could exceed $1 billion in 2025. With only 2.6 days of fuel reserves and rising reliance on costly liquid fuels, the situation threatens public finances. A new gas processing plant is expected to help reduce costs and improve energy security.  

AFRICA  

·        South Africa Mining Output Shrinks Again but at Slower Pace  

o   South Africa’s mining production fell 2.8% year-on-year in March 2025, easing from a sharp 9.7% drop in February. Output declines moderated for PGMs, building materials, and nickel, while iron ore, chromium ore, diamonds, coal, and other minerals posted gains. On a monthly basis, output rose 3.5%. However, Q1 2025 production fell 4.5% from Q4 2024. 

·        Nigeria’s Inflation Rate Eases to 23.71% in April 2025 

o   Nigeria’s headline inflation rate declined to 23.71% in April 2025, down 0.52 percentage points from March’s 24.23%, driven by lower prices of staple foods like maize flour, rice, and yam flour. Food inflation also dropped to 21.26%. Year-on-year, inflation fell significantly from 33.69% in April 2024, reflecting base year changes and easing price pressures. 

·                  Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

·        US Markets Rebound Last Week, Boosted by Softening of US-China Tariff Policies

·        Easing US-China Trade Tensions Weaken Gold’s Safe-Haven Appeal, Leading to a -0.21% W/W Retreat

·        Ghana’s Treasury Bill Auction Sees Slight Oversubscription of 8.95%, Yields Continue to Decline Across the Curve

·        Ghanaian Equities Maintain Steady Growth, Positive Sentiment Drives Nine Gainers; GSE-CI Up 0.32% and Financial Stocks Index Rises 0.30%

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - April 28, 2025