In this week's edition:

·        U.S. Stocks Ended Last Week Higher Amid Policy Shifts and Tariff Developments.

·        Ghana's Treasury Receives Record GHS 17.70 billion in Bids Amid Significant Yield Decline.

·        Ghana Stock Exchange Posts 2.08% Weekly Gain, YTD Return Reaches 9.47%.

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - February 17, 2025

AROUND THE GLOBE   

·        US Producer Prices Rise More than Expected

o   US producer prices rose by 0.4% in January 2025, exceeding forecasts of 0.3%, driven by food and energy costs. Goods prices increased by 0.6%, led by a 10.4% surge in diesel fuel. Service prices rose by 0.3%, with traveller accommodation up by 5.7%. Annual PPI remained at 3.5%, above expectations of 3.2%. Core PPI increased by 0.3% monthly, with the annual rate at 3.6%, surpassing forecasts.

·        UK GDP Grew by 0.9% in 2024

o   The UK economy expanded by 0.9% in 2024, up from 0.4% in 2023, driven by a 1.3% rise in services. Construction growth slowed to 0.4% (from 2.4%), while production shrank by 1.7%, extending the 0.9% fall from 2023. Real GDP per head fell 0.1%. The Bank of England forecasts 0.7% growth in 2025.

·        Euro Area GDP Growth Eked Higher in Q4

o   The Eurozone economy grew by 0.1% in Q4 2024, slightly above the initial estimate. Germany (-0.2%) and France (-0.1%) contracted, while Italy stagnated. Spain (0.8%) and Portugal (1.5%) led growth, with gains in the Netherlands, Belgium, and Slovenia. Ireland’s GDP fell 1.3%. Year-on-year, GDP rose 0.9%, with full-year growth at 0.7%, up from 0.4% in 2023.

·        Japan’s 2024 GDP Growth Weakest in Four Years

o   Japan’s economy grew by just 0.1% in 2024, down from 1.5% in 2023, the weakest since 2020. Private consumption fell, business investment slowed, and exports posted minimal growth. The Bank of Japan’s rate hikes, yen depreciation, and global uncertainties weighed on activity. Japan’s nominal GDP hit JPY 609.29 trillion but fell behind Germany.

·        Russian Inflation Hits 2-Year High

o   Russia’s annual inflation rose to 9.9% in January 2025 from 9.5%, the highest since early 2023. The increase followed a weaker ruble, labour shortages from military mobilization, and soaring deficit spending. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 1.2%, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures in the economy.

·        Bank of Russia Holds Rate at 21%

o   The Bank of Russia kept its key rate at 21% in February 2025, citing high inflation and excess demand. Despite previous hike signals, policymakers opted to wait for more data. Inflation expectations remain elevated amid strong growth and labour shortages from military mobilization. Annual inflation hit 10% in early February, reinforcing concerns about economic overheating.

GHANA

·        Ghana’s 2035 Eurobond Hits Record High Following IMF Deal Announcement

o   Ghana’s dollar bonds maturing in 2035 rose by 0.5% to 74.82 cents on the dollar on Friday, reaching their highest level since their launch as part of restructured debt instruments in October 2024. This surge followed news that the Ghanaian government had engaged with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a USD 3.0 billion credit facility, boosting investor confidence. 

AFRICA

·        Kenya to roll over Sh88bn IMF funding to new programme

o   Kenya’s move to roll over Sh88 billion in IMF funding signals a strategic push to secure continued financial support amid fiscal pressures. By extending the last disbursement into the next financial year, the government is clearly preparing for a fresh financing deal when the current program expires in April.

·        South Africa's Business Sentiment Remains Steady Amid Positive Economic Outlook

o   Business sentiment in South Africa remained stable in January, following a significant surge to a decade-high at the close of 2024. This steady outlook reflects continued optimism among firms regarding the country's economic prospects and the performance of its coalition government.

·        Trump’s Energy Policy Poses Threat to Nigeria’s N19.6 Trillion Revenue Target

o   As Nigeria intensifies efforts to implement its N54.9 trillion 2025 budget, experts are raising concerns that President Donald Trump’s energy policy, focused on boosting oil production, could undermine the $75 per barrel oil price assumption central to the budget. The policy’s potential impact could also affect inflation, Diaspora remittances, and other economic factors crucial to the country’s revenue targets.

o        Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week’s edition: 

·                  U.S. stocks Closed Near Fresh Highs, supported by Economic Growth Outlook and Accommodative Monetary Policy 

·                  Gold Prices Rose 4.48%, Driven by Strong Safe-Haven Demand Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Anticipation of US Interest Rate Cuts 

·                  Ghana’s Treasury Marks Fifth Consecutive Week of Oversubscription at 16.67%, With Mixed Yield Movements Across the Curve 

·                  GSE Ends Flat in a Christmas-Shortened Week, Dragged by a Single Financial Counter 

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Markets Update - December 29, 2025

AROUND THE GLOBE    

·                  US GDP Growth Hits Two-Year High 

o        The US economy expanded at an annualized 4.3% in Q3 2025, the strongest pace in two years and well above forecasts, accelerating from 3.8% in Q2. Growth was driven by a sharp pickup in consumer spending, solid export growth, and a rebound in government spending. Household demand strengthened across both goods and services, while fixed investment rose modestly despite continued weakness in residential and structures investment. 

·                  US Jobless Claims Drop to Near-Year Lows  

o        Initial jobless claims in the US fell by 10,000 to 214,000 in the week ended December 20, well below expectations and the lowest level this year outside the holiday-affected Thanksgiving period. The decline points to continued labor market resilience despite subdued hiring. However, continuing claims edged up to 1.92 million, suggesting workers are taking longer to find new jobs. Claims filed by federal employees also fell, easing shutdown-related concerns. 

·                  Japan Industrial Output Contracts Sharply 

o        Japan’s industrial production fell by 2.6% m/m in November 2025, a sharp reversal from October’s growth and steeper than market expectations. The decline—the largest since January 2024—reflected weakening external demand and continued inventory adjustments. Major drags came from electrical machinery, motor vehicles, and fabricated metals. On an annual basis, output declined by 2.1%, ending a three-month expansion and marking the steepest y/y contraction since May. 

·                  Russia Manufacturing Remains in Contraction 

o        Russia’s Manufacturing PMI edged down to 48.1 in December 2025, marking a seventh consecutive month of contraction. Output fell at its fastest pace since March 2022, driven by weak domestic demand and persistently declining new and export orders. Firms responded by cutting employment and scaling back input purchases as outlooks softened. Meanwhile, input cost inflation hit a nine-month high, pushing output prices higher. Business sentiment weakened to its lowest level since May 2022.  

GHANA  

·                  Ghana’s GoldBod Surpasses 100-Ton Export Target in 2025 

o        Ghana’s Ghana Gold Board (GoldBod) has exceeded its 2025 small-scale gold export target of 100 tonnes, generating over $10 billion in foreign exchange revenues, according to its CEO, highlighting strong performance under the government’s gold reforms. The milestone reflects accelerated exports from the artisanal and small-scale mining sector following the establishment of GoldBod to centralise purchases, improve traceability, and boost official foreign exchange inflows, reinforcing support for the Cedi and macroeconomic stability. 

AFRICA  

·                  Egypt Cuts Interest Rates by 100bps 

o        The Central Bank of Egypt cut its key policy rate by 100bps to 20% on December 25, 2025, marking the first easing since early 2024 as inflationary pressures continue to moderate. The move follows a slowdown in urban inflation to 12.3% in November, driven mainly by softer food prices. Authorities expect real GDP growth of around 5% for 2026 and aim to steer inflation toward the 5–9% target range by Q4 2026, signaling improved macroeconomic confidence. 

·                  Nigeria Secures $1.2 Billion UAE Loan for Lagos–Calabar Coastal Highway 

o        Nigeria obtained $1.2 billion in funding from the UAE to finance a 56-kilometer section of the Lagos–Calabar Coastal Highway, part of a planned 700-kilometer route linking major economic hubs. Fully underwritten by First Abu Dhabi Bank and insured by the Islamic Corporation for the Insurance of Investment and Export Credit, the loan ensures continued progress on one of Nigeria’s largest infrastructure projects. President Bola Tinubu emphasized ongoing efforts to secure innovative financing for national development. 

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week’s edition: 

·                  U.S. Stocks Closed 2025 in Positive Territory, Capping a Volatile Year Marked by Tariff Uncertainty Under President Trump and Strong AI-Driven Optimism 

·                  Gold Gained 64.58% Last Year on Trade Tensions, Fed Rate-Cut Expectations, Geopolitical Uncertainty, and Central Bank Buying, but Fell 4.43% W/W at the Start of 2026 on Sell-Off Pressure 

·                  Ghana’s Treasury Marks Sixth Consecutive Week of Oversubscription at 5.58%, With Mixed Yield Movements Across the Curve 

·                  Ghanaian Equities End the Year in Green: GSE-CI Up 0.16% w/w to 79.40% FY, while the Financial Index Outperformed at 95.19% FY 

 Kindly click to view the full report: Global Markets Update - January 5, 2026

AROUND THE GLOBE    

·                  Fed Likely to Reduce Rates This Year 

o        The minutes from the Fed's December meeting showed that most FOMC members believe rate cuts will likely be suitable this year if inflation gradually declines. However, policymakers were split on whether the bigger risk is persistent inflation or rising unemployment. Some members expressed more concern about entrenched inflation possibly needing higher interest rates, while others favored larger rate cuts to address a weakening labor market. At the December meeting, the federal funds rate was lowered by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%–3.75%, which matched market expectations and marked the third and final cut of 2025. 

·                  US Jobless Claims Drop to Near-Year Lows  

o        Initial jobless claims in the US fell by 16,000 to 199,000 in the week ending December 27, a typically volatile period due to the holiday season, and well below market expectations of 220,000. The reading marked the lowest level since January, excluding the seasonally volatile Thanksgiving week, when claims briefly dipped to a three-year low of 192,000. Continuing claims also declined, falling to 1.89 million in the week ending December 20 from a downwardly revised 1.91 million in the prior period.  

·                  Eurozone Manufacturing Contraction Worse Than Expected 

o        The HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.8 in December 2025, signalling the fastest contraction since March and falling below previous estimates and November’s reading. Output and new orders declined, especially in Germany. Italy and Spain stayed in contraction, while France saw its strongest expansion since June 2022. Regional employment kept falling; job losses have lasted over two-and-a-half years, with declining backlogs indicating adequate capacity. Sales weakened despite discounts, input cost inflation hit a 16-month high, but firms remain most optimistic about the year ahead since before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. 

·                  China's Services PMI Reaches Highest Level in Four Months 

o        China’s NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 in December 2025 from 49.5 in November, the highest since August and above expectations. This suggests government efforts boosted demand and supported service activity. New orders and employment declined but at a slower pace, while foreign demand remained weak. Supplier delivery times were stable, input costs rose modestly, and selling prices fell further. Overall sentiment hit a nine-month high due to optimism about policy support and domestic demand recovery. 

GHANA  

·                  Cryptocurrency Market Readies for Regulation after Presidential Approval 

o        Ghana’s crypto industry is preparing for formal regulation after the President assented to the VASP Bill 2025, which will introduce the country’s first legal framework for digital assets. Industry players at the WEB3 Accra summit welcomed the move, saying it will boost confidence and growth. The BoG and SEC will regulate the sector, with a two‑year transition period before licensing begins. Experts say regulation will improve security, protect users, and support innovation, while groups like Binance push for public education. 

AFRICA  

·                  Nigeria's Private Sector Continues Strong Growth 

o        Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria's PMI slipped slightly to 53.5 in December 2025 from 53.6 in November, yet still indicated strong monthly growth. Increased new orders, output, and purchasing activities pointed to greater customer demand. Although employment rose, job creation remained limited. Inflationary pressures edged up a bit in December but stayed near recent low levels. Importantly, business confidence saw a significant boost, reaching its highest point in six months due to planned investments such as business expansions, new branch openings, and enhanced product exports. 

·                  Kenya's December Inflation Holds at 4.5% 

o        Kenya's inflation rate stayed at 4.5% in December 2025, unchanged from November and below the central bank’s 5% target midpoint for the 19th straight month. Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices rose by 7.8%. Inflation was influenced by shifts in transport, housing, and utilities, leading to a 0.6% rise in the Consumer Price Index over the previous month. During the festive season, higher demand caused bus, matatu, and flight fares to increase. 

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

·        U.S. stocks Posted Mixed Performance Last Week, With Early-Week Losses Limiting Overall Gains

·        Gold Marks Second Consecutive Week of Gains, Rising by 0.91% Driven by Softer-Than-Expected US Inflation Data

·        Ghana’s Treasury Records 41.94% Oversubscription as Yields Ease Further

·        Ghana Stock Exchange Welcomes FAB Listing Amid Continued Rally: GSE-CI Up 0.88% w/w to 79.10% YTD as Financial Stocks Lead Market Gains

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - December 22, 2025

AROUND THE GLOBE   

·        US Core Inflation Falls to 2.6%, Lowest Since 2021

o   US core consumer price inflation eased to 2.6% year-on-year in November 2025, the lowest reading since March 2021 and below market expectations of 3%. The moderation reflects easing underlying price pressures, although shelter costs still rose by 3.0% over the year. Notable increases were also recorded in medical care, household furnishings, recreation, and used vehicles. October inflation data were unavailable due to the prolonged government shutdown, limiting monthly inflation comparisons.

·        UK Q3 GDP Growth Holds at 0.1% 

o   The UK economy grew by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, confirming preliminary estimates and slowing from 0.3% in Q2. Output was dragged by a 0.3% fall in production, led by manufacturing, while services rose by 0.2% and construction edged up 0.2%. On the demand side, household spending (+0.3%), government expenditure (+0.4%), and a 1.5% rebound in business investment provided modest support. Year-on-year growth eased slightly to 1.3%.

·        ECB Holds Rates Steady, Signals Data-Dependent Approach

o   The European Central Bank (ECB) kept borrowing costs unchanged in December 2025, with the main refinancing rate at 2.15% and the deposit facility rate at 2.0%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a change. President Lagarde emphasized a meeting-by-meeting, data-driven approach and confirmed no discussion of hikes or cuts. Updated projections show GDP growth of 1.4% in 2025, moderating slightly in 2026–2027, while headline inflation averages 2.1% in 2025 and is expected to remain near target through 2028.

·        Bank of England Cuts Rate to 3.75% Amid Easing Inflation

o   The Bank of England reduced its Bank Rate by 25bps to 3.75%, the lowest since 2022, citing slowing inflation and signs of economic strain. Five MPC members supported the cut, while four preferred holding rates, limiting expectations for further easing. UK inflation slowed to 3.2% in November, below forecasts, as GDP contracted for a second month in October and wage growth softened. Policymakers emphasized that future decisions would depend on developments in the inflation outlook.

·        Bank of Japan Hikes Rate to 0.75%, Highest Since 1995

o   The Bank of Japan raised its key short-term rate by 25bps to 0.75% in December, the highest level since September 1995, marking its second hike this year. The move signals a gradual shift from ultra-loose monetary policy. The BoJ expects steady wage growth in 2026 amid stronger corporate profits, while noting that real rates remain negative and financial conditions are accommodative. Core inflation is projected to stay below 2% in early FY2026 before gradually rising.

·        China FDI Decline Eases Amid November Surge

o   Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into China fell by 7.5% year-on-year to CNY 693.18 billion in the first eleven months of 2025, marking the slowest contraction since August 2023. November saw a sharp rebound, with utilized FDI up by 26.1% year-on-year. Manufacturing attracted CNY 171.72 billion, services CNY 506.29 billion, and technology sectors CNY 221.26 billion, including e-commerce, medical instruments, and aerospace. Switzerland (+67%), the UAE (+47.6%), and the UK (+19.3%) led FDI growth by origin.

• GHANA

·        IMF Disburses $385 Million to Ghana Following Reform Progress

o   The IMF released $385 million to Ghana under its three-year $3 billion program, bringing total disbursements to $2.8 billion since May 2023. The move reflects the authorities’ progress on economic reforms and reinforces investor confidence in fiscal stability. Program conditions and the government’s commitment to consolidation have helped stabilize government finances and supported a ~28% Cedi appreciation against the Dollar this year. The Cedi’s strength and subsiding inflation pressures have enabled the Bank of Ghana to ease monetary policy this year. The IMF highlighted progress on debt restructuring, fiscal consolidation, and macroeconomic stabilization, projecting inflation to fall to 7.9% in 2026. 

• AFRICA

·        South Africa Inflation Eases to 3.5% in November

o   South Africa’s annual inflation rate cooled to 3.5% in November 2025, slightly below expectations, from 3.6% in October. Price growth slowed in five categories, notably transport (0.7%) and recreation, sport & culture (2.9%), while food & non-alcoholic beverages rose to 4.4%, driven by higher meat prices amid foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks. Restaurants & accommodation and alcoholic beverages & tobacco also increased. Core inflation inched up to 3.2%, while the CPI fell by 0.1% month-on-month.

·        Nigeria Plans Record 2026 Budget Amid Wider Deficit

o   President Bola Tinubu unveiled Nigeria’s 2026 budget, proposing N58 trillion in spending against projected revenue of N34 trillion, resulting in a N24 trillion deficit (4.3% of GDP), wider than this year’s 3.9% shortfall. Revenue is constrained by lower oil price assumptions and output forecasts. The government will prioritize defense, infrastructure, education, and health, aiming for 4.7% economic growth. Analysts warn that subdued revenue and implementation risks could strain public finances, though debt levels remain manageable.

·                  Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics