In this week’s edition:

·        U.S. Stocks Closed at Record Highs, As Investors Assessed the Sustainability of the AI Rally Alongside Middle East Oil Supply Risks and Inflation Implications.

·        Gold Prices Rose 0.68% W/W, Supported by Reports That the U.S. and Iran May Extend Their Ceasefire.

·        Ghana’s Treasury Records Second Consecutive Undersubscription as Yields Rise Across the Curve.

·        GSE Extends Decline as Broad-Based Pullbacks Persist Across Key Counters; GSE-CI Down 1.14% W/W to 63.67% YTD, While GSE‑FI Dropped 0.35% W/W to 68.99% YTD.

 Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Updates - June 1, 2026

AROUND THE GLOBE   

·        U.S. Q1 GDP Growth Revised Lower

o   U.S. economic growth was revised down to an annualized 1.6% in Q1 2026, from an initial estimate of 2.0%, though still up from 0.5% in Q4 2025, reflecting downward revisions to consumer spending and investment. Consumer spending rose by 1.4% (vs 1.6%), driven mainly by services, while private investment increased by 7.0% (vs 8.7%), with strong gains in equipment and intellectual property offset by declines in structures and residential investment. Meanwhile, net trade weighed on growth (-1.25pp) as imports (21.1%) outpaced exports (13.1%), while government spending rose by 4.4%, unchanged from the earlier estimate.

·        Euro Area Unemployment Rate Edges Above Expectations

o   The Euro area unemployment rate stood at 6.3% in April 2026, unchanged from March but slightly above expectations of 6.2%, despite a decline in the number of unemployed by 84,000 to 11.08 million. Youth unemployment improved to 14.7% from 15.1%, while disparities across major economies persisted, with Spain (10.3%), France (8.2%), and Italy (5.1%) recording higher rates compared to Germany (3.8%) and the Netherlands (3.9%). The jobless rate was unchanged from a year earlier, while the broader EU unemployment rate held at 6.0%.

·        Japan Manufacturing Growth Confirmed at Slower Pace

o   Japan’s manufacturing activity was confirmed at a PMI of 54.5 in May 2026, unchanged from the preliminary estimate but down from 55.1 in April, signalling a moderation from the strongest reading since January 2022. Output continued to expand, supported in part by stockpiling efforts amid Middle East‑related supply disruptions, while new order growth eased slightly despite export demand rising at the fastest pace in five years.

·        China Composite PMI Edges Higher as Overall Activity Expands

o   China’s National Bureau Statistics Composite PMI rose to 50.5 in May 2026, up from 50.1 in April, marking a third consecutive month of expansion in overall business activity. The improvement was driven by a modest rebound in the services sector, while manufacturing remained broadly stable, although external headwinds continued to weigh on momentum. Elevated energy costs and supply disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict, alongside lingering trade uncertainty with the US, continued to pressure margins and dampen business confidence.

GHANA 

·        Ghana Reserves Hit Multi‑Year High

o   Ghana’s gross international reserves climbed to a year‑plus high in May, reflecting improved external balances, yet the cedi continues to face sustained pressure from elevated dollar demand, dividend repatriation, and rising oil prices. Bank of Ghana data show reserves increasing to $14.4 billion as of May 18, 2026, up from US$13.8 billion at end‑2025, equivalent to 5.7 months of import cover, alongside a widening current account surplus to US$3.10 billion from US$2.43 billion a year earlier. Governor Dr. Johnson Asiama attributed the currency weakness to strong FX demand from the energy sector and seasonal corporate outflows, noting that the central bank continues to provide liquidity through regular auctions without resorting to aggressive intervention.

AFRICA 

·        South Africa Raises Policy Rate by 25bps Amid Rising Inflation Risks

o   The South African Reserve Bank increased its benchmark repo rate by 25 basis points to 7% on May 28, 2026, in line with expectations, marking the first rate hike since May 2023 (50 bps). The decision saw four of the six Monetary Policy Committee members vote in favor, while two preferred to maintain the current rate. The central bank cited heightened inflation risks linked to the Middle East conflict and warned that overlapping shocks could lead to second-round effects, warranting tighter monetary policy to keep inflation within target.

·        Kenya Inflation Climbs to Near 2½‑Year High

o   Kenya’s annual inflation rate accelerated to 6.7% in May 2026, up from 5.6% in April and marking the highest level since January 2024. The increase was driven largely by a sharp rise in transport costs (16.5% vs 10.0%) following fuel price hikes linked to higher global energy prices amid geopolitical tensions. Additional upward pressure came from food inflation (9.4% vs 8.8%) and housing and utility costs (3.4% vs 2.4%), reflecting broadening price pressures.

·        Nigeria Private Sector Activity Climbs to Nine‑Month High

o   Nigeria’s private‑sector activity strengthened in May 2026, with the Stanbic IBTC Bank PMI rising to 54.1 from 52.4 in April, marking the strongest growth since August 2025. The expansion was driven by faster increases in output and new orders, prompting firms to scale up purchasing and inventory levels, while supplier performance improved and employment continued to rise modestly. Although input and output price pressures remained elevated due to higher fuel costs, inflation eased to multi‑month lows, while business confidence stayed positive despite slipping to a one‑year low amid ongoing cost pressures and uncertainty.

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

·        U.S. Equities Broadly Declined as Rising Concerns Over the Prolonged Conflict with Iran Unsettled Investors.

·        Gold Prices Decline by 3.71% W/W, as Bullion Loss Appeal amid Escalating Inflation Concerns and the Potential for Fed Rate Hike.

·        Ghana’s Treasury Records Second Consecutive Oversubscription (27.33%) as Yields Rise Across the Curve.

·        GSE Extends Losing Streak as Financial Stocks Remain Under Pressure; GSE‑CI Dropped 1.70% W/W to 63.28% YTD, While GSE‑FI Slipped 2.93%% W/W to 73.63% YTD. 

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - May 18, 2026

AROUND THE GLOBE   

·                  U.S. Manufacturing Output Posts Strongest Gain in 14 Months

·        U.S. manufacturing output rose by 0.6% in April 2026, the largest increase since February 2025 and well above expectations of 0.2%, driven by a 1.2% jump in durable goods production, led by a 3.7% surge in motor vehicles and parts. In contrast, nondurable output edged down by 0.1%, as declines in chemicals and plastics were partly offset by gains in food, printing, and petroleum products. Meanwhile, capacity utilization increased to 75.8% from 75.4%, though it remains 2.4 percentage points below its long‑run average.

• U.S. Export Prices Surge Sharply Above Expectations

·        U.S. export prices rose unexpectedly by 3.3% m/m in April 2026, accelerating from a revised 1.5% increase in March and well above forecasts of 1.1%, marking the strongest gain since March 2022. The rise was driven by a sharp increase in non‑agricultural export prices (3.4% vs 1.6%), supported by higher costs for industrial supplies, capital goods, and consumer goods, which offset declines in automotive exports, while agricultural prices also climbed by 1.6% from 0.6%, the most since October 2024. On an annual basis, export prices jumped by 8.8%, accelerating from a revised 5.4%, the fastest increase since September 2022.

·    Euro Area GDP Growth Confirmed at 0.8% as Momentum Softens

·        Euro area GDP expanded by 0.8% y/y in Q1 2026, in line with earlier estimates, slowing from 1.2% in Q4 and marking the weakest growth since Q2 2024 amid energy‑related pressures linked to the Middle East conflict. Economic activity softened across most member states, including Germany (0.3% vs 0.4%), France (1.1% vs 1.3%), Italy (0.7% vs 0.9%), and the Netherlands (1.2% vs 1.8%), while Ireland contracted sharply (-6.3% vs 3.0%). In contrast, growth showed resilience in several economies, accelerating in Spain (2.7% vs 2.6%), Portugal (2.3% vs 1.9%), and Finland (1.3% vs 0.1%), while Bulgaria held steady at 2.9%.

·    U.K. Trade Deficit Widens to Highest Since 2022

·        The U.K. trade deficit widened sharply to £9.66 billion in March 2026, up from a revised £5.34 billion in February, marking the largest shortfall since January 2022. While exports edged up by 0.2% m/m to £79.13 billion, driven by modest gains in goods and services, imports grew at a faster pace of 5.3% to £88.78 billion, led by increased demand for fuel, machinery, and transport equipment. Growth in exports was supported by stronger shipments to the EU, particularly in fuel and chemicals, while imports from both EU (+2.7%) and non‑EU countries (+7.5%) rose significantly, contributing to the wider deficit.

·    U.K. Economy Posts Strongest Growth Since Q1 2025

·        The U.K. economy expanded by 0.6% q/q in Q1 2026, matching expectations and accelerating from a revised 0.2% in Q4, marking the strongest growth in a year. Growth was driven by a rebound in services output (0.8% vs 0.2%), led by wholesale and retail trade, alongside modest gains in production (0.2%) and construction (0.4%), despite mixed sectoral performance. On the demand side, expansion was supported by stronger investment, household consumption, and government spending, while annual growth came in at 1.1%, above the 0.8% forecast.

·    China Jobless Rate Falls to Three‑Month Low

·        China’s surveyed urban unemployment rate eased to 5.2% in April 2026, down from a more than one‑year high of 5.4% in March, coming in below expectations of 5.3% and marking the lowest level since January 2026. The decline was broad‑based, with unemployment among local workers edging down to 5.3% from 5.4% and the migrant workforce falling to 5.0% from 5.3%, including a drop to 5.0% from 5.7% among those with agricultural registration. Job conditions also improved slightly across major cities (5.2% vs 5.3%), while the average workweek held at 48 hours, with the overall January–April unemployment rate averaging 5.3%.

·    China Industrial Output Growth Slows to Weakest Since 2023

·        China’s industrial production expanded 4.1% y/y in April 2026, slowing from 5.7% in March and falling short of expectations of 5.9%, marking the weakest growth since July 2023 amid economic headwinds linked to the Iran conflict. Growth moderated across mining (3.8% vs 5.7%) and manufacturing (4.0% vs 6.0%), while utilities activity accelerated (5.3% vs 3.5%), with most manufacturing industries still recording gains, led by strong output in computers and communications equipment (15.6%) and automobiles (9.2%). However, non‑metallic mineral products contracted (-6.5%), while industrial output rose 5.6% for January–April and edged up 0.05% month‑on‑month.

• GHANA

·    Ghana Concludes IMF Programme, Shifts to Non‑Financing PCI

·        Ghana has reached a staff‑level agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the final review of its $3 billion Extended Credit Facility programme, marking the conclusion of a key intervention that helped the country recover from its most severe economic crisis in decades, subject to IMF Executive Board approval. The government plans to transition to a non‑financing Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) aimed at maintaining a credible fiscal path, strengthening resilience, and advancing structural reforms.

·    Ghana to Launch $1bn Cocoa Bond Programme from July

·        Ghana is set to raise $1 billion through cocoa‑backed bonds starting in July 2026 to finance purchases for the 2026/27 harvest season, according to sources familiar with the plan. The issuance will be structured in three tranches of roughly $330 million each, scheduled for mid‑July, December, and March 2027, with each tranche expected to be fully repaid before the next is issued. The programme forms part of broader efforts to overhaul cocoa sector financing, although officials from both the Finance Ministry and the Ghana Cocoa Board have yet to provide formal comments.

• AFRICA

·    Nigeria Inflation Rises to Five‑Month High in April

·        Nigeria’s annual inflation rate increased to 15.69% in April 2026, up from 15.38% in March, marking a five‑month high amid continued pass‑through from earlier fuel price shocks linked to the Middle East conflict. Food inflation accelerated for a third consecutive month to 16.06%, driven by broad‑based increases in key staples, while pressures also persisted in transport (16.0% vs 16.9%) and restaurants and hotels (27.9% vs 25.2%), although core inflation eased to 15.86% from 16.21%. On a monthly basis, CPI rose 2.13%, slowing from a sharp 4.18% increase in March, indicating a partial moderation in price momentum.

·    South Africa Jobless Rate Climbs to 32.7% in Q1 2026

·        South Africa’s unemployment rate increased to 32.7% in Q1 2026 from 31.4% in the previous quarter, reflecting worsening labor market conditions. The number of unemployed persons rose by 301,000 to 8.14 million, while employment declined by 345,000 to 16.75 million. Labor force participation fell to 59.0%, the lowest level since 2022. Broader measures of labor underutilization also deteriorated, with the expanded unemployment rate rising to 43.7% and the composite underutilization measure reaching 46.3%. The data highlights persistent structural employment challenges and weakening labor market absorption capacity in the economy.

          Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week’s edition: 

·        U.S. Equities Advanced, Supported by Progress in Middle East Peace Talks and a Strong Corporate Earnings Season. 

·        Gold Prices Fell 0.68% W/W, As Elevated Oil Prices Heightened Inflation Concerns and Strengthened Expectations of a U.S. Rate Hike this Year. 

·        Ghana’s Treasury Auction Returns to Undersubscription (12.30%) as Yields Remain Broadly Stable. 

·        GSE Rebounds on ZEN and MTNGH Gains Despite Continued Weakness in Financials; GSE-CI Up 1.39% w/w to 65.55% YTD, While GSE‑FI Slipped 2.33%% W/W to 69.50% YTD. 

 Kindly click to view the full report: Global Markets Update - May 25, 2026

AROUND THE GLOBE    

·        U.S. Manufacturing Expansion Accelerates to Highest Since 2022 

o   US manufacturing activity strengthened further in May 2026, with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rising to 55.3 from 54.5, beating expectations of 53.8 and marking the strongest expansion since May 2022. Output growth accelerated to a four‑year high, while employment rose at its fastest pace since June 2025, even as new orders growth moderated slightly but remained among the strongest in recent years, partly driven by precautionary inventory building amid Middle East tensions. 

·        Euro Area Inflation Confirmed at 2023 High 

o   Euro area annual inflation was confirmed at 3.0% in April 2026, the highest since September 2023 and well above the ECB’s 2.0% target, driven primarily by a 10.8% surge in energy prices, the sharpest since February 2023. Price pressures also picked up in non‑energy industrial goods (0.8% vs 0.5%) and unprocessed food (4.6% vs 4.2%), while services (3.0% vs 3.3%) and processed food (1.6% vs 1.7%) recorded slower growth, leading to a modest easing in core inflation to 2.2% from 2.3%. Among major economies, inflation accelerated in Germany (2.9% vs 2.8%), France (2.5% vs 2.0%), Italy (2.8% vs 1.6%), and Spain (3.5% vs 3.4%), but edged lower in the Netherlands (2.5% vs 2.6%). 

·        UK Inflation Falls to One‑Year Low in April 

o   UK annual inflation slowed to 2.8% in April 2026, down from 3.3% in March and below expectations of 3.0%, marking its lowest level since March 2025. The decline was largely driven by a sharp moderation in housing and utility costs (1.4% vs 5.3%), alongside softer increases in transport (4.5% vs 4.7%), food (3.0% vs 3.7%), health (2.4% vs 3.1%), and recreation (1.7% vs 2.8%), although fuel prices surged by 23.0%. Meanwhile, prices picked up for clothing (0.7% vs ‑0.8%) and household goods (0.5% vs ‑0.4%), while on a monthly basis CPI rose by 0.7%, unchanged from March. 

·        UK Manufacturing Growth Holds at Multi‑Year High 

o   UK manufacturing activity remained robust in May 2026, with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI holding steady at 53.7, unchanged from April and above expectations of 53.0, matching its highest level since May 2022. Stronger output, which rose to a three‑month high, was supported by sustained demand, including client pre‑purchasing and stock‑building, as well as increased activity linked to data centre expansion. However, employment continued to decline, while cost pressures remained elevated and supply chains faced further disruptions, even as inventory accumulation accelerated to its fastest pace since July 2022 and business confidence improved slightly. 

·        Eurozone Manufacturing Growth Slows in May 

o   Eurozone manufacturing activity moderated in May 2026, with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI falling to 51.4 from 52.2 in April, below expectations of 51.8, marking the softest expansion in three months. The slowdown reflected weaker new orders as earlier demand tied to stock‑building and pre‑emptive buying amid Middle East tensions began to fade, while manufacturing employment declined and output growth remained modest, extending its expansion to five months. Meanwhile, input costs and output prices rose sharply, even as purchasing activity increased for a third straight month and business sentiment improved slightly. 

·        China Fiscal Spending Rises Modestly as Policy Support Accelerates 

o   China’s fiscal spending increased by 1.3% y/y to CNY 9.48 trillion in January–April 2026, with execution reaching 31.6% of the annual budget, the fastest pace for the period in five years, signaling front‑loaded policy support. Central government spending rose by 5.1%, outpacing a 0.7% increase in local spending, while fiscal revenue growth accelerated to 3.5% from 1.1% in Q1, supported by stronger tax receipts. Tax revenue climbed by 3.9% y/y, while non‑tax revenue rose by 1.6%, reflecting improving fiscal inflows alongside targeted stimulus efforts.  

GHANA  

·        Ghana Pauses Easing Cycle, Holds Policy Rate at 14% 

o   The Bank of Ghana kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 14% in May 2026, pausing after five consecutive rate cuts as policymakers adopted a cautious stance to anchor inflation expectations while supporting growth. The decision comes amid rising external risks, with Governor Johnson Asiama noting that the Middle East conflict has heightened inflationary pressures and policy uncertainty. Although inflation edged up to 3.4% in April from 3.2%, it remains relatively contained, allowing the central bank to balance stability and economic support. 

·        Ghana Banking Sector Nears Full Recovery – IMF 

o   The IMF has indicated that Ghana’s banking sector is close to full recovery following the disruptions caused by the domestic debt restructuring, with most institutions now meeting required capital adequacy standards after a successful recapitalisation effort. While a few banks remain under resolution or undergoing final stabilisation measures, authorities are expected to complete reforms by the end of the IMF programme. The Fund noted that these efforts have significantly strengthened financial system resilience, positioning the sector for greater stability and renewed confidence in the post‑programme phase. 

AFRICA  

·        Egypt Central Bank Holds Rates Steady Amid Inflation Risks 

o   The Central Bank of Egypt maintained its benchmark interest rate at 19% in May 2026, in line with expectations, following a pickup in inflation, with headline inflation rising to 13.4% from 11.9% and core inflation accelerating to 12.7% from 11.2%. Policymakers warned that higher global energy and food prices, exchange‑rate volatility, and fiscal adjustments could slow disinflation and pose risks to the Q4 2026 inflation target. Meanwhile, the growth outlook was revised down, with FY2025/26 GDP growth forecast lowered to 4.9% from 5.1%, amid weaker external demand and ongoing geopolitical tensions. 

·        Nigeria Holds Policy Rate Steady Amid Renewed Inflation Pressures 

o   Nigeria’s central bank maintained its benchmark interest rate at 26.50% in May 2026, following a 50 bps hike in February, as policymakers adopted a cautious stance amid rising inflation and heightened global uncertainty. Governor Olayemi Cardoso emphasized the need for vigilance to anchor inflation expectations, with headline inflation rising to 15.7% in April from 15.4%, marking a second consecutive increase after a prolonged period of disinflation. The bank also kept key policy parameters unchanged, including the asymmetric corridor (+50/-450 bps), cash reserve ratio (45% for commercial banks, 16% for merchant banks), and liquidity ratio (30%), reinforcing its commitment to macroeconomic stability. 

·        South Africa Inflation Climbs to Over 18-month High in April 

o   South Africa’s annual inflation rate rose to 4.0% in April 2026, up from 3.1% in March and slightly above expectations of 3.9%, marking the highest level since August 2024. The increase was driven mainly by higher housing and utilities costs (5.2% vs 5.1%) and a sharp rebound in transport inflation (4.9% vs -1.6%) following fuel price hikes, although food inflation eased to 2.9% from 3.6% and price growth slowed in restaurants and hotels (5.2% vs 5.9%). Core inflation also picked up to 3.6% from 3.2%, while on a monthly basis CPI rose by 1.1%, accelerating from 0.6%, marking the strongest increase since July 2022. 

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

• U.S. Equities Extended Gains as Job Growth Numbers Boosted Investor Confidence.
• Gold Prices Rose 2.19% W/W, As Bullion Gained Appeal as the Potential for the U.S. vs Iran Peace Agreement Eased Inflation Concerns.
• Ghana’s Treasury Records First Oversubscription (39.96%) After Eight Weeks as Demand Rebounds Amid Mixed Yields Movement.
• GSE Declines Sharply as Financial Stocks Drag Market; GSE‑CI Slipped 3.72% W/W to 66.10% YTD, While GSE‑FI Dropped 5.96%% W/W to 78.88% YTD.

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - May 11, 2026

AROUND THE GLOBE   

·    U.S. Short‑Term Inflation Expectations Ease Slightly

o   U.S. year‑ahead inflation expectations edged down to 4.5% in May 2026 from a seven‑month high of 4.7% in April, according to preliminary results from the University of Michigan survey. Longer-term inflation expectations also softened, with the five‑year outlook slipping to 3.4% from a six‑month high of 3.5% in the prior month.

·    U.S. Job Growth Expected to Slow in April

o   U.S. nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by 62,000 in April 2026, down sharply from 178,000 in March, which was the strongest gain since December 2024, pointing to a moderation in hiring momentum. Employment gains are likely to remain concentrated in healthcare and social assistance, with manufacturing posting another modest increase, while government payrolls are expected to decline; the unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings are forecast to rise by 0.3% m/m, slightly faster than March’s 0.2%, lifting annual wage growth to 3.8% from 3.5%, with analysts noting it remains too early for any spillovers from the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict to show up in labour data.

·    Euro Area Services PMI Slips Into Contraction in April

o   Euro area services activity contracted in April 2026, with the S&P Global Services PMI revised slightly higher to 47.6 from 47.4, but down sharply from 50.2 in March, marking the first contraction in nearly a year and the steepest downturn since February 2021. Demand weakened further as new orders fell at the fastest pace since October 2023, employment stagnated for a second straight month, and backlogs declined at the quickest rate since March 2025, while cost pressures intensified to multi‑year highs. Business confidence deteriorated notably, dropping to its lowest level in 42 months.

·    UK Private‑Sector Activity Strengthens Further in April

o   UK private‑sector output gained further momentum in April 2026, with the S&P Global Composite PMI rising to 52.6 from 50.3, revised up from 52.0 and well above expectations of 49.8, signaling renewed traction despite war‑related energy price pressures. Both manufacturing and services expanded at a faster pace, while new orders edged up, though goods producers flagged that some demand reflected client front‑loading amid disruption concerns. Employment fell for a 19th consecutive month, with firms citing higher National Insurance contributions as a key drag.

·    China Exports Hit Record High as US Shipments Rebound

o   China’s exports surged by 14.1% y/y to a record USD 359.44bn in April 2026, far exceeding expectations of 7.9% and accelerating sharply from March’s 2.5%, as firms stockpiled inputs amid fears that the Iran war could further lift costs. Shipments to the US rebounded 11.3% y/y to USD 36.8bn, returning to growth after a 26.5% slump in March despite tariffs, while exports to Southeast Asia and Europe rose strongly and Japan posted a 4% gain. For January–April, total exports were still up 14.5% y/y to USD 1.34tn, although sales to the US remained 10.2% lower over the period.

·    China’s Inflation Surpasses Forecasts on Rising Transport Costs

o   China’s annual inflation edged up to 1.2% in April 2026 from 1.0%, beating expectations of 0.8% as non-food prices accelerated. Transport costs surged by 4.6% amid elevated energy prices and supply chain disruptions linked to Middle East tensions. Prices also rose for healthcare, education, and clothing, while housing costs remained in decline. Food prices fell by 1.6%, driven by weaker pork and fresh produce prices. Core inflation ticked up to 1.2%, while monthly CPI rebounded 0.3%, defying expectations of a decline.

• GHANA

·    Fitch Upgrades Ghana to ‘B’; Outlook Positive on Strong Macro Recovery

o   Fitch Ratings upgraded Ghana’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating to ‘B’ from ‘B-’, with a Positive Outlook, citing improving macroeconomic fundamentals. The upgrade reflects a sharp decline in debt-to-GDP, supported by fiscal consolidation, strong growth, and Cedi appreciation. Public debt is projected to fall to 46% of GDP by 2027, while international reserves are expected to strengthen to 4.8 months of import cover. Strong current account surpluses, driven by gold exports, continue to support external stability. Fitch expects sustained primary fiscal surpluses and easing inflation, although interest costs remain elevated. Growth is projected to average 5% through 2027, underpinned by mining and improved domestic demand.

·    Ghana Inflation Picks Up in April on Higher Fuel Costs

o   Ghana’s annual inflation rate edged up to 3.4% in April 2026, from 3.2% in March, as non‑food inflation accelerated to 4.2% from 3.9%, largely driven by rising fuel prices, while food and non‑alcoholic beverage inflation eased slightly to 2.2% from 2.3%. On a monthly basis, headline CPI jumped 1.0%, the strongest increase since February 2025, accelerating sharply from a 0.1% rise in the previous month.

• AFRICA

·    Egypt Inflation Eases Further in April Despite Energy Pressures

o   Egypt’s annual urban inflation slowed to 14.9% in April 2026, down from a ten‑month high of 15.2% in March, as price pressures eased in health (9.3% vs 17.0%) and restaurants and hotels (12.0% vs 12.8%), even amid spillovers from the Iran conflict. Transport inflation remained elevated at 29.2%, though sharply lower than 39.4%, while housing and utilities accelerated to 38.5% from 35.3% on higher electricity costs; meanwhile, food and beverages rose 6.7%, the fastest in ten months. On a monthly basis, CPI increased 1.1%, slowing from 3.2% in March, helped by softer food price momentum.

·    South Africa Forex Reserves Hit Four-Month Low

o   South Africa’s gross foreign exchange reserves declined to $77.09 billion in April 2026 from $77.76 billion in March, the lowest since December 2025. The drop was driven by valuation effects and external financing flows, including a $235.8 million loan from the French Development Agency. Foreign exchange reserves fell to $51.7 billion, while gold holdings rose slightly to $18.7 billion amid higher prices. SDR holdings edged up to $6.7 billion, and the forward position remained steady at $0.59 billion. Despite the monthly dip, reserves remain above April 2025 levels of $67.59 billion overall.

·    South Africa Private‑Sector Growth Strengthens to Multi‑Year High

o   South Africa’s private‑sector activity improved further in April 2026, with the S&P Global PMI rising to 51.6 from 50.8, marking the strongest expansion since August 2022. Output and new orders accelerated sharply, supported by precautionary stock‑building amid Middle East‑related uncertainty, while employment growth climbed to its highest level since September 2022, though supplier delivery times deteriorated to a one‑and‑a‑half‑year low due to supply chain disruptions. Cost pressures intensified, with input inflation hitting a 30‑month high and output prices rising at the fastest pace since August 2024, keeping firms cautious about the sustainability of recent gains.

               Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics