In this week's edition:

• U.S. Stock Indices Closed Mixed as Rebounding Treasury Yields Rekindled Concerns Over the Macroeconomic Outlook.
• Gold Price Edged Higher W/W, Marking its First Weekly Gain in Four Weeks as Falling Oil Prices Eased Inflation Concerns.
• Ghana’s Treasury Auction Undersubscribed by 46.33% as High Bid Rejections Persist Despite Further Yield Declines.
• Ghanaian Equities Extend Losing Streak: GSE-CI Falls 2.06% w/w to 63.16% YTD as Broad-Based Selling Persists.
   

 AROUND THE GLOBE   

• Fed Raises Rates by 25 bps, First Time Since 2023
  • The US Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00% in September 2026, marking its first hike since 2023. The move reflects persistent inflation, with the Fed projecting 2026 PCE inflation at 3.7% and core inflation at 3.4%. Policymakers also raised their growth forecasts to 2.3% for 2026 and 2.4% for 2027, while lowering unemployment projections to 4.1%. The September projections indicate scope for at least one further 25 bps hike this year, underscoring a more restrictive policy outlook.
• Bank of England Holds Rate at 3.75% Amid Inflation Risks
  • The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 6–3 to maintain the Bank Rate at 3.75% in September, with three members favouring a 25-basis-point increase to 4%. The Bank highlighted renewed energy price pressures linked to the prolonged Middle East conflict, which have pushed UK CPI inflation to 3.1% in August and are expected to drive further increases in coming quarters. While second-round effects on wages and prices remain limited, the risk could rise if energy prices stay elevated. The MPC also approved a multi-year programme to unwind its government bond holdings to zero by 2034.
• BOJ Raises Rate to 31-Year High at 1.25%
  • The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised its key policy rate by 25bps to 1.25% in a 7–2 vote, taking borrowing costs to their highest level since 1995. The decision reflects persistent inflation pressures, including higher energy costs, and growing concern that underlying inflation could overshoot the 2% target. The hike, the first in three months, was opposed by Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato, highlighting differing views on the pace of policy normalization. Governor Kazuo Ueda kept the door open to further increases, including consecutive hikes, depending on inflation and economic conditions.
• US Export Prices Rebound Sharply in August
  • U.S. export prices rose by 0.6% month-on-month in August 2026, exceeding expectations of 0.5% and reversing a revised 1.4% decline in July. The increase was broad-based, with agricultural export prices rising by 0.5%, supported by higher corn and animal feed prices, while non-agricultural prices increased by 0.7%, led by industrial supplies, capital goods and automotive products. On an annual basis, export prices increased by 8.6%, highlighting continued upward price pressures despite the sharp decline recorded in July.
• Eurozone Current Account Surplus Widens in July
  • The eurozone’s current account surplus increased to €36.5 billion in July 2026, from €29.7 billion a year earlier, supported by stronger goods and services balances. The goods surplus rose to €39.8 billion, while the services surplus increased to €19.3 billion. These gains were partly offset by wider primary and secondary income deficits of €4.4 billion and €18.1 billion, respectively. For the first seven months of 2026, the current account surplus reached €151.1 billion, up from €131.6 billion over the same period in 2025.

GHANA

• Ghana MPC Begins September Policy Meeting
  • The Bank of Ghana’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has begins its 132nd regular meeting, running from September 22–24, 2026, to assess recent economic and financial developments. The Committee is expected to weigh the recent rise in inflation to 5.0% in August, continued economic growth, exchange-rate stability and easing financial conditions against renewed energy-price and geopolitical risks. The MPC has maintained the policy rate at 14% over its past two meetings. The policy decision and accompanying guidance are scheduled for release at a press conference on September 24.

AFRICA

• Nigeria Inflation Eases for Third Consecutive Month
  • Nigeria’s annual inflation rate eased marginally to 15.39% in August from 15.43% in July, marking its third consecutive monthly decline and the lowest level since March. Food inflation also fell to 19.57% from 20.31%, recording its first decline in seven months, while the relative strength of the naira provided further support. Core inflation moderated more significantly to 13.29%, its lowest since March 2021. Monthly CPI growth slowed to 0.71% from 1.57%, indicating a broader moderation in near-term price pressures.
• South Africa Inflation Expectations Ease in Q3
  • South Africa’s inflation expectations moderated in the third quarter, following a sharp increase in the previous period amid the global energy shock. Household inflation expectations for the next 12 months eased to 4.0% from 4.2%, while two-year-ahead expectations declined to 3.8% from 3.9%. Professional forecasts for 2027 and 2028 also softened to 4.0% and 3.8%, respectively. The moderation comes as headline inflation eased to 4.3% in July from 5.0% in June, providing a more favourable backdrop for monetary policy.

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

• U.S. Stocks Closed Lower Last Friday, Amid Concerns That the Treasury’s Plan to Curb Borrowing Costs May Provide Only a Short-Term Fix.
• Gold Surged 5.18% w/w, supported by renewed concerns over US fiscal sustainability.
• Ghana’s Treasury Auction Oversubscribed by 7.86% as Demand Stays Skewed to the Long End as Yields Declined.
• Broader Market Declines as GSE-CI Falls by –1.12% w/w to 72.59% YTD, GSE-FSI Also Declined by –2.36% w/w to 70.53% YTD.

 AROUND THE GLOBE   

• U.S. Fed Minutes Show Inflation Risks and Rate Hike Concerns
  • The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes indicated that policymakers remained concerned about persistent inflation and believed additional interest rate hikes might be necessary if price pressures did not continue to moderate. While some officials felt financial conditions were not restrictive enough, others argued that tighter market conditions were already helping to curb demand. Overall, inflation risks were viewed as skewed to the upside, although the minutes may reflect a more hawkish stance than current market expectations, as they preceded softer employment and inflation data released subsequently.
• U.S. Factory Growth Slows to 5-Month Low: S&P Global
  • US manufacturing activity moderated in August 2026, with the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI declining to 53.2 from 53.9 in July, below market expectations. The slowdown reflected higher fuel costs, reduced inventory accumulation, and raw material shortages caused by supply chain delays. Output growth weakened for the third consecutive month, while new orders expanded at their slowest pace since March. Input purchasing contracted for the first time since February, and supplier delivery times lengthened further. Despite these challenges, employment growth strengthened, price pressures eased somewhat, and business confidence improved.
• European Investor Morale Stronger than Anticipated
  • Eurozone economic sentiment improved for a third consecutive month in August 2026, with the ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator rising to 31.4, its highest level in six months and above market expectations. The improvement reflected growing optimism among analysts, with over a third expecting economic conditions to strengthen and only a small minority anticipating deterioration. The assessment of current economic conditions also improved significantly, while inflation expectations eased, suggesting a more favourable outlook for growth and price stability in the region.
• UK Private Sector Activity Unexpectedly Accelerates
  • UK private sector activity remained resilient in August 2026, with the S&P Global UK Composite PMI holding at 52.5, outperforming market expectations. Growth was driven by stronger services activity, which offset a slowdown in manufacturing. New orders increased at the fastest pace since February, supported by robust demand in the services sector. However, employment continued to decline amid higher labour costs, while rising fuel prices and wages contributed to renewed inflationary pressures. Despite these challenges, business confidence improved for a third consecutive month, aided by better profit margins following the stabilisation of energy prices.

GHANA

• Bank of Ghana Holds Firm on 8% Inflation Target as Geopolitical Risks Cloud Outlook 

• • The Bank of Ghana is resisting calls to lower its medium-term inflation target despite a sharp improvement in price stability, signalling that policymakers are unwilling to declare victory while geopolitical tensions and external shocks could still disrupt Ghana’s macroeconomic recovery. The position reflects a deliberately cautious monetary-policy stance after Ghana emerged from one of its most severe inflationary episodes in decades, when rapid price increases, exchange-rate depreciation and fiscal pressures sharply weakened household purchasing power and business confidence.
• Bank Energy Sector Reset Cuts $1.47bn Burden
  
  
  • Ghana’s attempt to repair the finances of its power industry is beginning to produce measurable fiscal gains, with the government clearing about US$1.47 billion in legacy energy-sector obligations while securing an estimated US$750 million in savings from cheaper fuel choices and renegotiated power agreements. Speaking at a press briefing, the energy minister stated that reforms spanning fuel substitution, debt restructuring and tighter management of electricity-sector revenues had improved payments to Independent Power Producers and reduced the pace at which new arrears accumulate.

AFRICA

• Nigeria’s Inflation Rate Slows to 4-Month Low in July
  • Nigeria’s annual inflation rate slowed for the second consecutive month to 15.43% in July 2026, its lowest level since March, supported by the relative stability of the naira. The decline was driven by softer price increases in categories such as transportation, clothing and footwear, restaurants and hotels, and miscellaneous goods and services. However, food inflation accelerated to 20.31%, marking its sixth consecutive monthly increase and remaining the key inflationary pressure.
• Egypt's Central Bank Maintains Key Policy Rate
  • The Central Bank of Egypt maintained its benchmark interest rate at 19% in August 2026, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change as policymakers balanced inflation risks against moderating economic growth. The decision reflects concerns over rising inflation, pressure on the Egyptian pound, and higher fuel import costs stemming from regional geopolitical tensions. While economic activity softened in the second quarter, the central bank expects growth to average around 5% in FY2025/26 and inflation to gradually return to its target range by the second half of 2027. Policymakers reiterated their commitment to price stability, with markets expecting rates to remain unchanged through the end of 2026 before easing resumes in early 2027.
• South Africa Building Permits Jump in June
  • Building plans approved in South Africa surged by 30.5% from a year ago to around 9,868 in June 2026, following a revised 12.9% slump in the previous month. This was the strongest increase since January 2025, underpinned by a strong recovery in plans approved for non-residential buildings (136.7% vs -10.5% in May). Additional support came from residential buildings (7.8% vs -13%) and additions & alterations (8.9% vs -14.2%).

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

• U.S. Stocks Rose Marginally Last Week as the Fed Chair’s Warning of High Inflation Strengthened Bets for a Rate Hike.
• Gold Prices Fell by 3.21% w/w, as Hawkish Signals from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Weighed on the Metal.
• Ghana’s Treasury Auction Oversubscribed by 26.80% as Yields Decline Sharply Across the Curve.
• Ghanaian Equities Extend Decline as Mega-Cap Pullbacks Outweigh Gains: GSE-CI Falls by 0.77% w/w to 71.27% YTD.

AROUND THE GLOBE   

• U.S. Growth Moderates to 1.5% in Q2 2026 
  • The U.S. economy expanded at an annualized 1.5% in Q2 2026, down from 2.1% in Q1, as higher imports and weaker government spending weighed on growth. However, domestic demand remained resilient, with consumer spending rising by 3.4% and fixed investment increasing by 7.0%, supported by strong AI-related investment. Residential investment also rebounded by 1.3%. Government spending declined by 1.0%, while imports surged by 12.5%, outpacing export growth.
• U.S. PCE Prices Exceed Expectations
  • U.S. PCE price index rose by 0.2% month-on-month in July 2026, above the 0.1% expected, following a 0.1% decline in June. Services inflation accelerated to 0.3%, while goods prices fell by 0.1%. Core PCE inflation also increased by 0.2%, in line with expectations. Annually, headline PCE inflation held at 3.7%, exceeding the 3.6% forecast, while core inflation remained at 3.3%.
• U.S. Payrolls Revised Lower by 79,000
  • The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revised employment estimates downward by 79,000 jobs for the twelve (1)2 months through March 2026, equivalent to a 0.1% adjustment. The largest downward revisions were recorded in retail trade (-154,600), private education and health services (-96,000), and wholesale trade (-86,200). Meanwhile, transportation and warehousing saw the largest upward revision, adding 135,100 jobs, followed by government and information.
• Canada GDP Expected to Hold Steady in July
  • Canada’s economy is expected to have remained unchanged in July 2026, according to a preliminary estimate, following a revised 0.3% expansion in June. Growth in real estate, rental and leasing, and professional, scientific and technical services likely offset declines in retail trade and manufacturing. The flash estimate points to a pause in economic momentum after June’s stronger-than-expected performance, suggesting that underlying activity remained mixed as some service sectors continued to expand while goods-producing industries faced weakness. 
• China’s Business Activity Remains in Contraction
  • China’s NBS Composite PMI Output Index edged up to 49.5 in August 2026 from July’s 49.3 but remained below the 50-point threshold for a second consecutive month, signaling continued contraction in overall business activity. Manufacturing output returned to expansion, but weak services activity continued to weigh on growth. Soft domestic demand, persistent property-sector weakness, and trade tensions remained key challenges.

GHANA 

• Fuel Prices Projected to Rise in September
  • Petrol, diesel and LPG prices in Ghana are projected to increase marginally from September 1, 2026, according to the Chamber of Petroleum Consumers (COPEC) Ghana. Petrol is expected to rise by about 5% to GH¢16.21/litre, while diesel could increase to GH¢17.61/litre and LPG to GH¢14.19/kg. The projected increases come despite the recent appreciation of the Cedi and a slight decline in crude oil prices, as higher international refined-product prices offset these gains. COPEC has urged the government to extend fuel subsidies to cushion consumers. 

AFRICA 

• South Africa Producer Inflation Eases Further in July
  • South Africa’s producer price inflation slowed to 5.7% year-on-year in July 2026, down from 7.5% in June and below the 6.1% market expectation. The moderation was largely driven by softer increases in coal and petroleum product prices, particularly diesel and petrol, amid lower global crude oil prices. Price growth also eased across several other categories, while transport equipment prices declined. On a monthly basis, producer prices fell by 1.0%, following a 0.1% decline in June.
• Nigeria’s Remittance Inflows Near $1 Billion Monthly Target
  • Nigeria’s formal remittance inflows through International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs) reached a record $947 million in July 2026, just $53 million short of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s $1 billion monthly target. Total inflows reached $3.8 billion in the first seven months of 2026, representing a 50.2% increase from the same period in 2025.

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

• U.S. Stocks Closed Mixed Last Friday, as Macroeconomic Headwinds Weighed against Signs of Tech Optimism.
• Gold Increased by 0.80% w/w as Expectations of a Fed Rate Hike Declined.
• Ghana’s Treasury Rejects 56.72% of Total Bids Tendered, Forcing Interest Rates Down.
• Broader Market Appreciation as GSE-CI Rises by 0.79% w/w to 74.54% YTD, GSE-FSI Also Rose by 1.19% w/w to 74.67% YTD.
  

AROUND THE GLOBE   

• Fitch Affirms U.S. at AA+ Amid Fiscal Strains
  • Fitch affirmed the U.S. sovereign credit rating at AA+ with a stable outlook, highlighting the country’s large economy, high per-capita income, and the dollar’s global reserve status. Despite tariffs, spending cuts, tighter border controls, and policy uncertainty, the economy has shown resilience and flexibility. Growth is projected to slow to 1.9% in 2026-2027 from 2.8% in 2025, with weaker labour demand and slower job creation. The fiscal outlook is pressured, with the deficit expected to widen to 7.4% of GDP in 2026-2027, the highest among AA-rated peers, driven by military, interest, Medicare, and Social Security costs.
• U.S. Budget Deficit Widens in July
  • The US government posted a $432 billion budget deficit in July 2026, widening from a $291 billion shortfall a year earlier and exceeding forecasts for a $346 billion gap. Government outlays rose to $766 billion from $630 billion in July 2025, led by Medicare spending of $174 billion. Social Security costs reached $141 billion, while net interest accounted for $104 billion and national defence for $91 billion. Meanwhile, government receipts fell to $334 billion from $338 billion a year earlier, with individual income taxes contributing $173 billion and social insurance and retirement receipts totalling $139 billion.
• U.S. Consumer Sentiment Falls in August
  • The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 51 in early August 2026, down from 55.2 in July and below market expectations of 54.5, ending two consecutive months of improvement. Both major components weakened, with the current conditions index declining to 51.8 and the expectations measure falling to 50.6. The deterioration was broad-based across political and demographic groups, with particularly sharp declines among older, lower-income and less-educated consumers, who are more exposed to rising prices.
• Euro Area GDP Annual Growth Rate Confirmed at 1% in Q2
  • The Eurozone economy grew 1.0% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, accelerating from an upwardly revised 0.5% in the previous quarter, according to second estimates. Strong AI-related investment, resilient government spending, and one-off factors helped offset the impact of the conflict in Iran and higher energy prices. Among the largest euro area economies, Spain remained the standout performer, with annual GDP growth of 2.7%, followed by the Netherlands (1.3%), Italy (1.0%), Germany (0.9%), and France (0.7%). Quarterly, the Eurozone economy expanded 0.4%, its strongest pace since the first quarter of 2025.
• PBoC Signals Targeted Support, No Major Easing
  • The People's Bank of China pledged to roll out “practical and effective” policy support promptly, while avoiding signals of major easing. In its quarterly monetary policy report released Wednesday, the central bank said it will intensify countercyclical adjustments, boost domestic demand, and channel more resources toward technological innovation and smaller firms. It vowed to conduct overnight reverse repo operations more frequently to fine-tune short-term rates, and urged that loans and bond financing be assessed together rather than focusing solely on credit growth.

AFRICA

• Kenya Leaves Interest Rate Unchanged for 3^rd Meeting
  • The Central Bank of Kenya left its benchmark interest rate at 8.75% on August 11th, 2026, a third straight hold, as policymakers stated that the current stance of monetary policy remained appropriate to ensure price and exchange rate stability. Headline inflation rose to 6.5%, driven by higher fuel costs that pushed up transportation and food prices, but remained within the bank’s 5% ±2.5% target range. Meanwhile, economic growth accelerated to 5.3% in the first quarter of 2026, from 4% in the previous quarter. Looking ahead, inflation is expected to remain within the target range in the near term, assuming a de-escalation of the Middle East conflict.
• Egypt Jobless Rate Hits Record Low
  • Egypt’s unemployment rate fell to 5.8% in Q2 2026, down from 6% in the previous quarter, reaching a record low. The labour force increased by 0.6% to around 35.64 million, as the number of unemployed declined by 2.4% to approximately 2.08 million, and employment rose by 0.8% to 33.6 million, the highest level on record, suggesting an improved capacity of the economy to absorb new labour market entrants, despite persistent gender disparities in labour market participation.
• South Africa Unemployment Rate Highest in 4 Years
  • South Africa’s unemployment rate rose to 33.6% in second quarter of 2026 from 32.7% in the first quarter, the highest since the second quarter of 2022. The number of unemployed people increased by 4.2% to 8.481 million, while employment edged down by 0.1% to 16.739 million. The labour force grew 1.3% to 25.220 million, although the participation rate slipped to 59.6%. The potential labour force, comprising people available but not seeking work or seeking work but unavailable, fell by 280,000 to 4.571 million, while those outside the labour force for other reasons increased by 72,000 to 12.519 million.

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics