In this week’s edition: 

·                  U.S. Stocks Closed 2025 in Positive Territory, Capping a Volatile Year Marked by Tariff Uncertainty Under President Trump and Strong AI-Driven Optimism 

·                  Gold Gained 64.58% Last Year on Trade Tensions, Fed Rate-Cut Expectations, Geopolitical Uncertainty, and Central Bank Buying, but Fell 4.43% W/W at the Start of 2026 on Sell-Off Pressure 

·                  Ghana’s Treasury Marks Sixth Consecutive Week of Oversubscription at 5.58%, With Mixed Yield Movements Across the Curve 

·                  Ghanaian Equities End the Year in Green: GSE-CI Up 0.16% w/w to 79.40% FY, while the Financial Index Outperformed at 95.19% FY 

 Kindly click to view the full report: Global Markets Update - January 5, 2026

AROUND THE GLOBE    

·                  Fed Likely to Reduce Rates This Year 

o        The minutes from the Fed's December meeting showed that most FOMC members believe rate cuts will likely be suitable this year if inflation gradually declines. However, policymakers were split on whether the bigger risk is persistent inflation or rising unemployment. Some members expressed more concern about entrenched inflation possibly needing higher interest rates, while others favored larger rate cuts to address a weakening labor market. At the December meeting, the federal funds rate was lowered by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%–3.75%, which matched market expectations and marked the third and final cut of 2025. 

·                  US Jobless Claims Drop to Near-Year Lows  

o        Initial jobless claims in the US fell by 16,000 to 199,000 in the week ending December 27, a typically volatile period due to the holiday season, and well below market expectations of 220,000. The reading marked the lowest level since January, excluding the seasonally volatile Thanksgiving week, when claims briefly dipped to a three-year low of 192,000. Continuing claims also declined, falling to 1.89 million in the week ending December 20 from a downwardly revised 1.91 million in the prior period.  

·                  Eurozone Manufacturing Contraction Worse Than Expected 

o        The HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.8 in December 2025, signalling the fastest contraction since March and falling below previous estimates and November’s reading. Output and new orders declined, especially in Germany. Italy and Spain stayed in contraction, while France saw its strongest expansion since June 2022. Regional employment kept falling; job losses have lasted over two-and-a-half years, with declining backlogs indicating adequate capacity. Sales weakened despite discounts, input cost inflation hit a 16-month high, but firms remain most optimistic about the year ahead since before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. 

·                  China's Services PMI Reaches Highest Level in Four Months 

o        China’s NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 in December 2025 from 49.5 in November, the highest since August and above expectations. This suggests government efforts boosted demand and supported service activity. New orders and employment declined but at a slower pace, while foreign demand remained weak. Supplier delivery times were stable, input costs rose modestly, and selling prices fell further. Overall sentiment hit a nine-month high due to optimism about policy support and domestic demand recovery. 

GHANA  

·                  Cryptocurrency Market Readies for Regulation after Presidential Approval 

o        Ghana’s crypto industry is preparing for formal regulation after the President assented to the VASP Bill 2025, which will introduce the country’s first legal framework for digital assets. Industry players at the WEB3 Accra summit welcomed the move, saying it will boost confidence and growth. The BoG and SEC will regulate the sector, with a two‑year transition period before licensing begins. Experts say regulation will improve security, protect users, and support innovation, while groups like Binance push for public education. 

AFRICA  

·                  Nigeria's Private Sector Continues Strong Growth 

o        Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria's PMI slipped slightly to 53.5 in December 2025 from 53.6 in November, yet still indicated strong monthly growth. Increased new orders, output, and purchasing activities pointed to greater customer demand. Although employment rose, job creation remained limited. Inflationary pressures edged up a bit in December but stayed near recent low levels. Importantly, business confidence saw a significant boost, reaching its highest point in six months due to planned investments such as business expansions, new branch openings, and enhanced product exports. 

·                  Kenya's December Inflation Holds at 4.5% 

o        Kenya's inflation rate stayed at 4.5% in December 2025, unchanged from November and below the central bank’s 5% target midpoint for the 19th straight month. Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices rose by 7.8%. Inflation was influenced by shifts in transport, housing, and utilities, leading to a 0.6% rise in the Consumer Price Index over the previous month. During the festive season, higher demand caused bus, matatu, and flight fares to increase. 

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week's edition:

·        U.S. stocks Posted Mixed Performance Last Week, With Early-Week Losses Limiting Overall Gains

·        Gold Marks Second Consecutive Week of Gains, Rising by 0.91% Driven by Softer-Than-Expected US Inflation Data

·        Ghana’s Treasury Records 41.94% Oversubscription as Yields Ease Further

·        Ghana Stock Exchange Welcomes FAB Listing Amid Continued Rally: GSE-CI Up 0.88% w/w to 79.10% YTD as Financial Stocks Lead Market Gains

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - December 22, 2025

AROUND THE GLOBE   

·        US Core Inflation Falls to 2.6%, Lowest Since 2021

o   US core consumer price inflation eased to 2.6% year-on-year in November 2025, the lowest reading since March 2021 and below market expectations of 3%. The moderation reflects easing underlying price pressures, although shelter costs still rose by 3.0% over the year. Notable increases were also recorded in medical care, household furnishings, recreation, and used vehicles. October inflation data were unavailable due to the prolonged government shutdown, limiting monthly inflation comparisons.

·        UK Q3 GDP Growth Holds at 0.1% 

o   The UK economy grew by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, confirming preliminary estimates and slowing from 0.3% in Q2. Output was dragged by a 0.3% fall in production, led by manufacturing, while services rose by 0.2% and construction edged up 0.2%. On the demand side, household spending (+0.3%), government expenditure (+0.4%), and a 1.5% rebound in business investment provided modest support. Year-on-year growth eased slightly to 1.3%.

·        ECB Holds Rates Steady, Signals Data-Dependent Approach

o   The European Central Bank (ECB) kept borrowing costs unchanged in December 2025, with the main refinancing rate at 2.15% and the deposit facility rate at 2.0%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a change. President Lagarde emphasized a meeting-by-meeting, data-driven approach and confirmed no discussion of hikes or cuts. Updated projections show GDP growth of 1.4% in 2025, moderating slightly in 2026–2027, while headline inflation averages 2.1% in 2025 and is expected to remain near target through 2028.

·        Bank of England Cuts Rate to 3.75% Amid Easing Inflation

o   The Bank of England reduced its Bank Rate by 25bps to 3.75%, the lowest since 2022, citing slowing inflation and signs of economic strain. Five MPC members supported the cut, while four preferred holding rates, limiting expectations for further easing. UK inflation slowed to 3.2% in November, below forecasts, as GDP contracted for a second month in October and wage growth softened. Policymakers emphasized that future decisions would depend on developments in the inflation outlook.

·        Bank of Japan Hikes Rate to 0.75%, Highest Since 1995

o   The Bank of Japan raised its key short-term rate by 25bps to 0.75% in December, the highest level since September 1995, marking its second hike this year. The move signals a gradual shift from ultra-loose monetary policy. The BoJ expects steady wage growth in 2026 amid stronger corporate profits, while noting that real rates remain negative and financial conditions are accommodative. Core inflation is projected to stay below 2% in early FY2026 before gradually rising.

·        China FDI Decline Eases Amid November Surge

o   Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into China fell by 7.5% year-on-year to CNY 693.18 billion in the first eleven months of 2025, marking the slowest contraction since August 2023. November saw a sharp rebound, with utilized FDI up by 26.1% year-on-year. Manufacturing attracted CNY 171.72 billion, services CNY 506.29 billion, and technology sectors CNY 221.26 billion, including e-commerce, medical instruments, and aerospace. Switzerland (+67%), the UAE (+47.6%), and the UK (+19.3%) led FDI growth by origin.

• GHANA

·        IMF Disburses $385 Million to Ghana Following Reform Progress

o   The IMF released $385 million to Ghana under its three-year $3 billion program, bringing total disbursements to $2.8 billion since May 2023. The move reflects the authorities’ progress on economic reforms and reinforces investor confidence in fiscal stability. Program conditions and the government’s commitment to consolidation have helped stabilize government finances and supported a ~28% Cedi appreciation against the Dollar this year. The Cedi’s strength and subsiding inflation pressures have enabled the Bank of Ghana to ease monetary policy this year. The IMF highlighted progress on debt restructuring, fiscal consolidation, and macroeconomic stabilization, projecting inflation to fall to 7.9% in 2026. 

• AFRICA

·        South Africa Inflation Eases to 3.5% in November

o   South Africa’s annual inflation rate cooled to 3.5% in November 2025, slightly below expectations, from 3.6% in October. Price growth slowed in five categories, notably transport (0.7%) and recreation, sport & culture (2.9%), while food & non-alcoholic beverages rose to 4.4%, driven by higher meat prices amid foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks. Restaurants & accommodation and alcoholic beverages & tobacco also increased. Core inflation inched up to 3.2%, while the CPI fell by 0.1% month-on-month.

·        Nigeria Plans Record 2026 Budget Amid Wider Deficit

o   President Bola Tinubu unveiled Nigeria’s 2026 budget, proposing N58 trillion in spending against projected revenue of N34 trillion, resulting in a N24 trillion deficit (4.3% of GDP), wider than this year’s 3.9% shortfall. Revenue is constrained by lower oil price assumptions and output forecasts. The government will prioritize defense, infrastructure, education, and health, aiming for 4.7% economic growth. Analysts warn that subdued revenue and implementation risks could strain public finances, though debt levels remain manageable.

·                  Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week’s edition: 

·                  U.S. stocks Closed Near Fresh Highs, supported by Economic Growth Outlook and Accommodative Monetary Policy 

·                  Gold Prices Rose 4.48%, Driven by Strong Safe-Haven Demand Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Anticipation of US Interest Rate Cuts 

·                  Ghana’s Treasury Marks Fifth Consecutive Week of Oversubscription at 16.67%, With Mixed Yield Movements Across the Curve 

·                  GSE Ends Flat in a Christmas-Shortened Week, Dragged by a Single Financial Counter 

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Markets Update - December 29, 2025

AROUND THE GLOBE    

·                  US GDP Growth Hits Two-Year High 

o        The US economy expanded at an annualized 4.3% in Q3 2025, the strongest pace in two years and well above forecasts, accelerating from 3.8% in Q2. Growth was driven by a sharp pickup in consumer spending, solid export growth, and a rebound in government spending. Household demand strengthened across both goods and services, while fixed investment rose modestly despite continued weakness in residential and structures investment. 

·                  US Jobless Claims Drop to Near-Year Lows  

o        Initial jobless claims in the US fell by 10,000 to 214,000 in the week ended December 20, well below expectations and the lowest level this year outside the holiday-affected Thanksgiving period. The decline points to continued labor market resilience despite subdued hiring. However, continuing claims edged up to 1.92 million, suggesting workers are taking longer to find new jobs. Claims filed by federal employees also fell, easing shutdown-related concerns. 

·                  Japan Industrial Output Contracts Sharply 

o        Japan’s industrial production fell by 2.6% m/m in November 2025, a sharp reversal from October’s growth and steeper than market expectations. The decline—the largest since January 2024—reflected weakening external demand and continued inventory adjustments. Major drags came from electrical machinery, motor vehicles, and fabricated metals. On an annual basis, output declined by 2.1%, ending a three-month expansion and marking the steepest y/y contraction since May. 

·                  Russia Manufacturing Remains in Contraction 

o        Russia’s Manufacturing PMI edged down to 48.1 in December 2025, marking a seventh consecutive month of contraction. Output fell at its fastest pace since March 2022, driven by weak domestic demand and persistently declining new and export orders. Firms responded by cutting employment and scaling back input purchases as outlooks softened. Meanwhile, input cost inflation hit a nine-month high, pushing output prices higher. Business sentiment weakened to its lowest level since May 2022.  

GHANA  

·                  Ghana’s GoldBod Surpasses 100-Ton Export Target in 2025 

o        Ghana’s Ghana Gold Board (GoldBod) has exceeded its 2025 small-scale gold export target of 100 tonnes, generating over $10 billion in foreign exchange revenues, according to its CEO, highlighting strong performance under the government’s gold reforms. The milestone reflects accelerated exports from the artisanal and small-scale mining sector following the establishment of GoldBod to centralise purchases, improve traceability, and boost official foreign exchange inflows, reinforcing support for the Cedi and macroeconomic stability. 

AFRICA  

·                  Egypt Cuts Interest Rates by 100bps 

o        The Central Bank of Egypt cut its key policy rate by 100bps to 20% on December 25, 2025, marking the first easing since early 2024 as inflationary pressures continue to moderate. The move follows a slowdown in urban inflation to 12.3% in November, driven mainly by softer food prices. Authorities expect real GDP growth of around 5% for 2026 and aim to steer inflation toward the 5–9% target range by Q4 2026, signaling improved macroeconomic confidence. 

·                  Nigeria Secures $1.2 Billion UAE Loan for Lagos–Calabar Coastal Highway 

o        Nigeria obtained $1.2 billion in funding from the UAE to finance a 56-kilometer section of the Lagos–Calabar Coastal Highway, part of a planned 700-kilometer route linking major economic hubs. Fully underwritten by First Abu Dhabi Bank and insured by the Islamic Corporation for the Insurance of Investment and Export Credit, the loan ensures continued progress on one of Nigeria’s largest infrastructure projects. President Bola Tinubu emphasized ongoing efforts to secure innovative financing for national development. 

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics

In this week’s edition: 

·                  Most Global Equity Markets Closed Lower as Investors Reassessed Elevated Technology Valuations Following Disappointing Signals from Major Tech Players 

·                  Gold Traded Near Record Highs, Rising by 2.4% for the Week on Expectations of Further US Monetary Easing 

·                  Ghana’s Treasury Auction Posts 22.57% Oversubscription with Mixed Yield Movements 

·                  Ghanaian Equities Extend Winning Streak: GSE-CI Up 0.66% w/w to 77.54% YTD as Financials Provide Support 

Kindly click to view the full report: Global Markets Update - December 15, 2025

AROUND THE GLOBE    

·                  Fed Lowers Rates for 3rd Time 

o        The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 bps to 3.50%–3.75% in December, its third consecutive reduction and the lowest level since 2022. The committee signaled only one additional 25 bps cut in 2026, while revising GDP growth higher and lowering inflation projections slightly. Unemployment forecasts were unchanged at 4.5% for 2025 and 4.4% for 2026. 

·                  US Exports Climb to Second-Highest on Record   

o        US exports of goods and services increased 3% to $289.3bn in September 2025, marking the second-highest level on record. The rise was driven mainly by goods exports, which grew on the back of higher shipments of nonmonetary gold and pharmaceuticals, despite a decline in computer exports. Services exports edged lower, as weakness in travel and transport services offset modest gains in financial services. 

·                  UK Economy Contracts Again in October 

o        The UK economy unexpectedly shrank by 0.1% m/m in October 2025, matching September’s decline and missing forecasts for modest growth, marking a fourth straight month of stagnation. The downturn was driven by a 0.3% fall in services, led by sharp drops in wholesale and retail trade and IT-related activities, alongside a 0.6% contraction in construction, weighed down by private housing. In contrast, production rebounded 1.1%, supported by manufacturing—particularly motor vehicles, mining, and utilities. Over the three months to October, GDP also fell 0.1%, underscoring persistent growth headwinds. 

·                  Eurozone Industrial Output Hits 5-Month High 

o        Eurozone industrial production rose 0.8% m/m in October 2025, the strongest gain since May, supported by broad-based growth across sectors. Durable consumer goods led the increase, alongside solid gains in non-durables, energy, capital goods, and intermediate goods. Among major economies, Germany, Ireland, Spain, the Netherlands, and France recorded higher output, while Italy, Belgium, and Sweden saw declines. On a yearly basis, production expanded 2.0% y/y, a five-month high, signaling improving industrial momentum across the bloc. 

·                  China Inflation Climbs to 21-Month High 

o        China’s annual inflation rose to 0.7% in November 2025, up from 0.2% in October and in line with expectations, marking the highest level since February 2024. The pickup was driven by food prices, which rose for the first time in ten months as declines in pork prices eased and fresh produce rebounded. Non-food inflation remained firm, supported by consumer trade-in programs, with steady gains in clothing, healthcare, and education. Core inflation held at 1.2% y/y, its strongest pace in 20 months. On a monthly basis, however, consumer prices slipped 0.1%, the first decline in five months, reflecting lingering demand softness.

GHANA  

·                  Ghana GDP Growth Eases in Q3 

o        Ghana’s economy grew 5.5% year-on-year in Q3 2025, slowing from a revised 6.5% in Q2 and marking the weakest expansion since Q3 2024. The moderation was driven by a sharp slowdown in industry, which expanded just 0.8% (from 2.3%), and softer growth in services at 7.6% (down from 9.6%), though services remained resilient. Agriculture strengthened, accelerating to 8.6% from 7.1%, largely supported by the fishing sector. On a seasonally adjusted basis, quarterly GDP rose 1.3%, slightly below the 1.4% recorded in the previous quarter.  

AFRICA  

·                  Egypt November Inflation Slows to 12.3%, Below Forecasts 

o        Egypt’s annual urban inflation eased to 12.3% in November 2025, down from October’s 12.5% and below the 13.1% forecast. The slowdown was mainly due to softer food price increases (0.7% vs 1.5%), the lowest since April 2021, and moderation in clothing (14.9% vs 15.7%) and communications (11.7% vs 11.9%). However, housing (27.9%) and transport (28.9%) costs rose faster, driven by fuel price hikes and new rental laws, while restaurants, hotels, and miscellaneous goods also accelerated. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose just 0.3%, the softest increase in four months. 

·                  Kenya Cuts Key Policy Rate to 9% for 9th Consecutive Meeting 

o        The Central Bank of Kenya reduced its benchmark rate by 25 bps to 9% in December 2025, marking the ninth consecutive cut. Governor Kamau Thugge said the move aims to boost lending, support economic activity, and maintain stable inflation expectations and exchange rates. Kenya’s annual inflation eased to 4.5% in November, below the 5% midpoint of the central bank’s target band for over a year, supported by lower processed food prices, stable energy costs, and exchange rate stability. 

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics