Economic Review Three interconnected developments defined H1 2026. First, the US-Israel-Iran conflict triggered a major energy shock that disrupted global energy markets, drove up oil and gas prices, and reversed much of the disinflation achieved in 2024 and 2025. Second, despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty and tighter financial conditions, global growth remained relatively resilient, supported by strong labour markets, sustained consumer spending, and continued investment in artificial intelligence, digital infrastructure, and advanced technologies.
The global economy remained resilient during the first half of 2025, but growth momentum weakened amid escalating trade tensions, heightened policy uncertainty, and slowing activity in several major economies. After showing signs of stabilisation in 2024, the global outlook deteriorated as new tariff measures, particularly those introduced by the United States and subsequent retaliatory actions by trading partners, weighed on business confidence and investment.
Economic Review
In the first half of 2024, the global economy faced a complex landscape characterized by both resilient growth and significant challenges. Purchasing Managers' Indexes (PMIs), a key indicator of economic health, remained largely above 50 through the period, with the JP Morgan Global PMI Composite Output Index rising to 52.4 in April, up from 52.3 in March. However, in June 2024, global economic activity appears to have declined, with June PMI printing 49.70.
Economic Review
High-frequency indicators suggest that global economic growth lost momentum to end H1 2023. Although the J.P. Morgan Global Composite Output Index posted above the neutral 50.0 mark for the fifth successive month to end the quarter, it came in at a four-month low. The data suggest the expansion in the second quarter continued to be largely driven by a vibrant service sector as lacklustre activity in the manufacturing sector persisted.
