Economic Review Three interconnected developments defined H1 2026. First, the US-Israel-Iran conflict triggered a major energy shock that disrupted global energy markets, drove up oil and gas prices, and reversed much of the disinflation achieved in 2024 and 2025. Second, despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty and tighter financial conditions, global growth remained relatively resilient, supported by strong labour markets, sustained consumer spending, and continued investment in artificial intelligence, digital infrastructure, and advanced technologies.
Finally, economic performance became increasingly divergent across countries, with economies integrated into Al and technology value chains benefiting from robust investment and productivity gains, while energy-importing and highly indebted developing economies faced growing pressure from higher commodity prices, elevated borrowing costs, and weaker trade conditions. As a result, the first half of 2026 highlighted both the global economy's resilience and the widening gap between the beneficiaries and casualties of geopolitical and technological change.
