In this week's edition:
· Global Equities Advance Across the Board on Mixed Investor Readings of Central Bank Policy Directions
· Gold Hits a New High on Expectations of Looser U.S. Policy and Heightened Geopolitical Uncertainty
· Ghana’s Treasury Auction Records 24.59% Undersubscription, with Mixed Yields Movement Across the Curve
· Ghana Stock Exchange Ends Three-Week Losing Streak; GSE-CI Inches Up to 48.70% YTD, While GSE-FSI Climbs to 46.10% YTD
Kindly click to view the full report: Global Market Update - September 15, 2025
AROUND THE GLOBE
· U.S. Producer Prices Post Surprise Decline in August
o U.S. producer prices slipped 0.1% in August 2025, the first monthly drop in four months, defying forecasts for a 0.3% rise. The decline was driven by a 0.2% fall in service costs, led by a 3.9% drop in machinery and vehicle wholesaling margins, while goods prices edged up 0.1% on higher tobacco, beef, poultry, and electricity costs. On an annual basis, PPI rose 2.6%, cooling from July’s 3.1% pace and below expectations of 3.3%, while core PPI also eased to 2.8%.
· U.S. Pushes G7 Tariffs on India, China Over Russian Oil
o The U.S. is pressing G7 nations to impose steep tariffs—potentially 50–100%—on India and China for buying Russian oil, the Financial Times reports. G7 finance ministers are set to discuss the proposal in a video call as President Trump steps up efforts to push Moscow toward peace talks. While Washington has already raised tariffs on Indian imports and briefly hiked Chinese levies earlier this year, EU officials warn such measures could strain ties with New Delhi and provoke Beijing. Brussels favors alternatives like tighter sanctions and earlier deadlines to phase out Russian energy, though opposition from Hungary and Slovakia persists.
· ECB Holds Rates Steady, Inflation Seen Near Target
o The European Central Bank (ECB) left key interest rates unchanged in September 2025, with the deposit facility at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%, as expected. Staff projections see headline inflation averaging 2.1% in 2025 before easing to 1.7% in 2026 and edging back to 1.9% in 2027. Growth is forecast at 1.2% in 2025, slowing to 1.0% in 2026, and rebounding to 1.3% in 2027. President Lagarde noted risks are more balanced, signaling the disinflationary process has ended.
· Euro Area Trade Surplus Narrows to €12.4B in July
o The Eurozone’s trade surplus narrowed to €12.4B in July 2025 from €18.5B a year earlier, though slightly above forecasts of €11.7B. Imports rose 3.1% to €239.1B, led by food, chemicals, and machinery, while exports edged up 0.4% to €251.5B, supported by food and vehicles. The surplus with the US shrank sharply as higher imports and weaker exports reflected ongoing tariff uncertainty.
· UK GDP Flat in July, Matching Forecasts
o The UK economy stalled in July 2025 after a 0.4% expansion in June, in line with expectations. Modest gains in services (+0.1%) and construction (+0.2%) were offset by a 0.9% drop in production, led by steep declines in electronics and pharmaceuticals. On a three-month basis, GDP rose by 0.2%, while annual growth held steady at 1.4%, just below forecasts of 1.5%.
· China Growth Falters as Retail and Jobs Weaken
o China’s economy lost momentum in August 2025, with industrial production slowing to 5.2% year-on-year—the weakest in a year—while retail sales rose just 3.4%, an eight-month low. The unemployment rate climbed to 5.3%, and property investment kept shrinking under tighter rules, underscoring persistent weakness in the housing sector. Officials pointed to record heat, prolonged rains, and global headwinds as drags, while urging manufacturers to seek overseas markets amid U.S. trade tensions. Beijing pledged measures to steady jobs, businesses, and markets as firms struggle with aggressive price cuts.
- GHANA
· Ghana GDP Growth Holds at 6.3%, Near 1-Year High
o Ghana’s economy expanded by 6.3% year-on-year in Q2 2025, unchanged from Q1 revised figures and the fastest pace since Q3 2024. Services drove growth with a 9.9% rise, led by a 21.3% surge in ICT and strong gains in education (+16.6%), health (+14.6%), and finance (+9.7%). Agriculture grew 5.2% on livestock output, while industry rose 2.3%, though mining and quarrying contracted 1.8% as oil and gas slumped 22.5%. On the demand side, household spending (+12.2%), investment (+17.1%), and net exports (+691.6%) provided strong support, offsetting a small dip in government consumption. Quarter-on-quarter, GDP rose 1.4% after a revised 1.6% gain in Q1.
· World Bank Disburses $360mn to Ghana in Support of IMF-Backed Reforms
o Ghana has received $360mn from the World Bank to reinforce fiscal stability and reforms under its $3bn IMF program, Citi News reported. The disbursement, approved June 27, brings World Bank support to $660mn following a $300mn release in 2023. Provided through the IDA’s Resilient Recovery Development Policy Operation (DPO2), the funds aim to strengthen revenue mobilisation, energy governance, and social spending. Finance Minister Ato Forson said the package reflects steady progress in restoring confidence and building a more resilient economy.
- AFRICA
· Egypt Inflation Rate at Near 3-1/2-Year Low
o Egypt’s annual urban inflation eased to 12.0% in August 2025, down from 13.9% in July and below market forecasts of 12.7%, marking the lowest level since March 2022. The slowdown was largely due to softer food inflation, which fell to a four-year low of 2.1%, alongside easing transport (26.8% vs 41.5%), restaurants and hotels (13.8% vs 15.2%), and miscellaneous goods (12.0% vs 13.6%). In contrast, housing (16.2% vs 15.9%) and furnishings (13.4% vs 12.9%) recorded slightly faster price increases, while communications held steady at 12.1%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.4%, rebounding from July’s 0.5% drop and ending a two-month streak of declines.
· South Africa Mining Output Growth Tops Forecasts
o South Africa’s mining production rose by 4.4% year-on-year in July 2025, beating market expectations of 3.2% and accelerating from an upwardly revised 2.5% in June. It marked the third straight month of growth and the strongest since September 2024, driven by sharp gains in iron ore (+12.2%), Platinum Group Metals, PGMs (+6.2%), and other metallic minerals (+45.8%). On a seasonally adjusted basis, mining output climbed 1% from June and advanced 5.8% in the three months to July compared with the previous three months.
Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics
