Weekly Market Update - Monday, July 13, 2026

In this week's edition:

• U.S. Equities Closed Mixed, as Chipmaker Volatility Offset Support from Declining Treasury Yields.
• Gold Prices Fell 1.36% W/W, as Rising Oil Prices and Escalating U.S.-Iran Tensions Strengthened Expectations of Prolonged Tight Fed Policy.
• Ghana’s Treasury Auction Oversubscribed by 30.24% as Long-Term Demand Remains Strong and 364-Day Yield Edges Higher.
• GSE Returns to Positive Territory as Broad-Based Gains Lift Market; GSE-CI Up 0.80% w/w to 68.33% YTD, While GSE‑FI Rose 0.40% W/W to 77.06% YTD.

AROUND THE GLOBE   

• U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to Highest Level in Over a Year
  • The U.S. trade deficit widened sharply to $77.6 billion in May 2026, up from a revised $54.6 billion in April and broadly in line with market expectations of a $78.5 billion shortfall, marking the largest gap since March 2025. The deterioration was driven by a 3.3% increase in imports to $395.3 billion last month, the highest level in more than a year, led by stronger purchases of consumer goods, crude oil, and passenger vehicles, while exports fell 3.2% to $317.7 billion due to weaker shipments of non-monetary gold, computers, and pharmaceutical products.
• ECB Signals Data-Dependent Neutrality Amid Geopolitical Volatility
  • According to the latest meeting minutes released on July 9, 2026, ECB policymakers agreed to maintain a neutral, data-dependent approach without signaling a pre-set path for future interest rates due to elevated economic uncertainty. However, markets are currently pricing in a 70% chance of a September rate hike as a recent surge in oil prices, triggered by renewed US-Iran military strikes, heightens concerns over broader inflation.
• China Inflation Eases Slightly Below Forecasts
  • China’s annual inflation rate slowed to 1.0% in June 2026, from 1.2% in May, coming in slightly below market expectations of 1.1% and marking the softest increase in three months. Non-food inflation eased to 1.5% (vs. 1.9% in May), driven by a moderation in transport costs (4.1% vs. 5.4% in May) following cuts in domestic gasoline and diesel prices amid lower energy costs as Middle East tensions eased. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose by 1.0% y/y (vs. 1.1% in May), while on a monthly basis consumer prices fell by 0.3% (vs. -0.1% in May), a steeper decline than the 0.2% drop expected by markets.
• Japan Bank Lending Growth Holds Near Five‑Year High
  • Japan’s bank lending increased 5.7% y/y in June 2026, unchanged from May’s 5.7% pace but slightly below market expectations of 5.8%, remaining the strongest growth rate since March 2021. Outstanding loans at major, regional, and shinkin banks rose to JPY 676.1 trillion, from JPY 670.8 trillion in May, with lending by major and regional banks accelerating to 6.3% (vs. 6.2% in May), driven by stronger demand for M&A financing, real estate investment, and business expansion.

GHANA

World Bank Downgrades Ghana Energy Recovery Programme to ‘Unsatisfactory’

• • The World Bank has downgraded Ghana’s Energy Sector Recovery Programme (ESRP) from “Moderately Satisfactory” to “Unsatisfactory”, citing financing constraints, election-related disruptions, procurement restrictions, and delays in approvals from the Ministry of Finance. Progress across key reform targets has been mixed, with ECG meeting its audited financial statement requirement but lagging in energy accounting, customer service reforms, and clean cooking initiatives. The Bank also raised concerns over declining collection efficiency and rising sector losses, with the combined financial losses of ECG and NEDCo reaching about US$1.5 billion, well above the programme’s long-term target.

AFRICA

Egypt Inflation Falls to Four‑Month Low in June

• Egypt’s annual urban inflation eased for a third consecutive month to 14.3% in June 2026, down from 14.6% in May and below market expectations of 15.1%, marking the lowest reading since February. The slowdown was driven by softer increases in transport costs (24.4% vs 24.7% in May), food and beverages (5.4% vs 7.6% in May), clothing and footwear (13.6% vs 14.2% in May), and health (4.0% vs 4.1% in May), although housing and utility inflation accelerated to 41.2% (vs 40.4% in May) on higher electricity costs. On a monthly basis, CPI fell by 0.4%, reversing a 1.6% increase in May and marking the first monthly decline since July 2025.

Egypt Central Bank Holds Rates Steady for Third Consecutive Meeting

• The Central Bank of Egypt left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 19.0% in July 2026, in line with expectations, marking a third consecutive meeting without a rate change as policymakers remain cautious amid geopolitical uncertainties and regional tensions. The decision came as headline inflation eased to 14.3% in June from 14.6% in May, its lowest level since before the Middle East conflict, while GDP growth slowed to 5.0% from 5.3% in the first quarter of 2026. Looking ahead, the central bank expects inflation to rise through Q3 2026 before gradually easing toward its 7±2% target range by the second half of 2027, with economic growth projected to average 5.0% in FY2025/26.

Kenya Economic Growth Accelerates in Q1 2026

• Kenya’s economy expanded by 5.3% y/y in Q1 2026, up from 4.0% in Q4 2025, marking the strongest growth since Q4 2024 and reflecting broad-based improvements across all major sectors. The rebound was led by agriculture, which grew 4.9% (vs. -1.3% in Q4 2025) amid favorable weather conditions, alongside strong performances in accommodation and food services (14.7%), mining and quarrying (9.1%), construction (6.6%), financial services (6.3%), information and communication (5.0%), and manufacturing (4.4%). On a seasonally adjusted basis, GDP increased by 1.3% q/q, unchanged from the pace recorded in Q4 2025, underscoring sustained economic momentum.

South Africa FX Reserves Fall to Seven‑Month Low

• South Africa’s gross foreign exchange reserves declined to $74.12 billion in June 2026, from $76.58 billion in May, marking the lowest level since November 2025. The decline was mainly driven by a drop in the value of gold reserves ($16.26 billion vs. $18.27 billion in May), lower foreign currency reserves ($51.22 billion vs. $51.66 billion), valuation adjustments, and government-related foreign exchange payments.
  
  Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics