Weekly Market Update - Monday, October 12, 2026

In this week's edition:

• U.S. Stocks Closed in the Green, Amid Expectations of a Strong Earnings Season.
• Gold Prices Rose by 1.28%, as Investors Weighed a Softer US Dollar Against the Prospect of a Fed Rate Hike.
• Ghana’s Treasury Auction Oversubscribed by 53.37% as Yields Decline Further Across the Curve.
• GSE-CI Falls by 0.13% w/w to 60.24% YTD as Sell-off in Heavyweight MTNGH Weighed on the Broader Index.

AROUND THE GLOBE   

• US 10-Year Treasury Yield Edges Up
  • The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note edged up to 5.26% on Friday, following a volatile session on Thursday, when the benchmark yield fell 6 bps from its highest level since 2002. Investors continued to assess developments in the Middle East and their implications for energy prices and inflation. Oil prices eased after US President Trump pledged to refrain from attacking Iran until after the midterm elections.
• US Mortgage Rates Climb to Highest Since 2023
  • The US 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.4% as of October 8th, 2026, rising further above 7% to reach its highest level since November 2023 and up from 7.28% in the previous week. This marks the seventh consecutive week with rate increases, as an intensifying selloff in the bond market amid expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates has kept 10-Year Treasury yields at their highest level in decades.
• ECB Keeps Rate Path Open Amid Inflation Uncertainty
  • ECB policymakers saw inflation risks skewed to the upside when they delivered their first rate hike since 2023 at the September meeting, but stressed the importance of not signaling any further policy moves and keeping all options open, according to the meeting accounts released last Thursday. Officials warned that eurozone inflation could come in higher than projected, but stressed the importance of avoiding guidance on the future interest-rate path given the high uncertainty surrounding the inflation outlook and range of possible scenarios due to the ongoing fighting between the US and Iran, as well as Russia’s war in Ukraine.
• Offshore Yuan Rises as PBoC Defends Policy
  • The offshore yuan rose to around 6.69 per dollar last Friday, after holding steady for two consecutive sessions as China defended its exchange-rate policy amid trade talks with the European Union. EU officials have increasingly pointed to exchange-rate imbalances, arguing that the yuan’s undervaluation bolsters Chinese exporters’ competitiveness and exacerbates the bloc’s widening trade deficit with China, which exceeds €1 billion ($1.12 billion) a day.

GHANA

• Ghana Inflation Rate Rises for 2nd Month
  • The annual inflation rate in Ghana rose to 5.2% in September 2026 from 5% in August, accelerating for a second consecutive month. Food inflation picked up to 4% from 3% in the prior month. In contrast, non-food inflation slowed to 6.2% from 6.8%, while inflation for services softened to 8.3% from 8.6%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.8%, doubling from a 0.4% rise the month before.
• Moody’s Raises Ghana’s Credit Rating
  • Moody’s Ratings upgraded Ghana’s sovereign credit rating as the nation’s sustained fiscal reforms post debt restructuring, help to tame inflation and reduce debt burden. The country’s long-term foreign currency score was raised to B3 from Caa1, the ratings firm said last Friday. The outlook was moved to stable from positive. Africa’s top gold producer is currently assessed at B- by S&P Global Ratings and B by Fitch Ratings.

AFRICA

• Central Bank of Kenya Leaves Rates Steady
  • The central bank of Kenya left its key interest rate steady at 8.75% for a fourth consecutive meeting in October 2026, saying it saw inflation staying within its target range in the short term despite edging up in the past three months. Inflation in Kenya reached 6.8% in September 2026, its highest level since January 2024. Policymakers noted that government interventions, including subsidies and the temporary reduction of VAT on fuel, continue to mitigate inflationary pressures. The central bank also revised upwards its 2026 growth forecast to 5% from 4.9% seen in August, with El Niño representing a key risk to growth.
• South Africa Manufacturing Production Falls Again
  • Manufacturing production in South Africa declined 4.3% year-on-year in August 2026, reversing a 1.1% rise in July. The largest negative contributions came from petroleum, chemical products, rubber and plastic products (-5%); motor vehicles, parts and accessories and other transport equipment (-8.8%); wood and wood products, paper, publishing and printing (-7%); food and beverages (-3%); and basic iron and steel, non-ferrous metal products, metal products and machinery (-3%).

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economic