Weekly Market Update - Monday, August 10, 2026

In this week's edition:

  • Gold Surged 7.30% w/w as a Weak U.S. Payrolls Report Lowered Interest Rate Expectations.
  • Ghana’s Treasury Auction Oversubscribed by 51.50% as Demand Stays Skewed to the Long End Despite Mixed Yield Movements.
  • Broader Market Declines as GSE-CI Falls by –1.60% w/w to 73.17% YTD, GSE-FSI Also Declines by –2.63% w/w to 72.60% YTD.
 

AROUND THE GLOBE   

  • U.S. Unemployment Rate Falls to 4.10% in July
    • The U.S. unemployment rate declined to 4.10% in July 2026, from 4.20% in June 2026, coming in below market expectations and marking the lowest level in four months. The improvement was largely driven by a contraction in the labour force, with the number of unemployed falling to 6.92 million (vs. 7.09 million in June), while total employment also declined to 162.18 million (vs. 162.26 million in June). Meanwhile, the labour force participation rate fell to 61.40% (vs. 61.50% in June), its lowest level since early 2021, and the employment-to-population ratio edged down to 58.90% (vs. 59.00% in June).
  • China Inflation Falls to Six‑Month Low in July
    • China’s annual inflation rate eased to 0.50% in July 2026, down from 1.00% in June 2026 and below market expectations of 0.80%, marking the weakest pace of inflation since January. The slowdown was driven by continued weakness in food prices, with food inflation remaining negative at -1.50% (vs. -1.60% in June), while non-food inflation slowed to 0.90% (vs. 1.50% in June), reflecting softer increases in transport costs (0.40% vs. 4.10%) following fuel price cuts and easing global energy prices. Meanwhile, core inflation eased to 0.90% (vs. 1.00% in June). On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell by 0.10% (vs. -0.30% in June), defying expectations for a 0.20% increase.
  • US Imposes a 15% Tariff on Polysilicon Imports
    • The Trump administration has imposed a 15.00% tariff on products made from polysilicon, a key input used in semiconductors and solar panels, as part of efforts to strengthen domestic manufacturing and curb China's influence in critical supply chains. In addition to the tariff, the administration introduced minimum import prices for polysilicon, wafers, solar cells, and solar modules, while authorizing the Commerce Department to establish incentive programs for firms investing in US-based polysilicon production. The measures, enacted under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, are intended to bolster domestic capacity in strategically important industries, though they could raise input costs for downstream manufacturers and renewable energy projects.
  • Euro Area Business Activity Expands at Fastest Pace in Eight Months
    • The S&P Global Eurozone Composite PMI was revised higher to 52.00 in July 2026, from a preliminary estimate of 51.90 and 50.00 in June 2026, signalling the strongest expansion in business activity since November 2025. The improvement was broad-based, with the services sector returning to growth and manufacturing output expanding at a faster pace, while new business increased for the first time this year and at the strongest rate since November. Meanwhile, both input cost and output price inflation eased further, and business confidence rose to a five-month high, reflecting improving optimism about the Eurozone economic outlook.
  • U.K. Private Sector Activity Returns to Growth in July
    • The S&P Global UK Composite PMI rose to 52.20 in July 2026, from 49.003 in June 2026, broadly matching the preliminary estimate of 52.1 and marking the strongest expansion in private-sector activity since April. The recovery was driven by renewed growth in the services sector and the strongest increase in manufacturing output since September 2024, while new business expanded for the first time in three months, signaling improving demand conditions. Meanwhile, employment continued to decline, reflecting ongoing job losses in the services sector. 
  • Ghana Inflation Slows to 4.6% in July
    • Ghana’s annual inflation rate eased to 4.60% in July 2026, down from a six-month high of 5.30% in June 2026, marking the first decline after three consecutive monthly increases. The moderation was driven by softer food inflation (3.10% vs. 3.90% in June) and a slight easing in non-food inflation (6.10% vs. 6.30% in June), supported by a more stable exchange rate that helped contain imported price pressures. Accordingly, inflation for imported goods slowed to 2.00% (vs. 2.30% in June). On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.10% (vs. 0.20% in June).

Egypt Inflation Accelerates to Three‑Month High in July

  • Egypt’s annual urban inflation rate rose to 14.90% in July 2026, up from 14.30% in June 2026, marking the first increase in four months and the highest reading since April, although it remained below market expectations of 15.10%. The acceleration was driven mainly by food and beverage inflation, which climbed to 8.00% (vs. 5.40% in June), the strongest increase in 14 months, while transport inflation edged up to 24.50% (vs. 24.40% in June) as the impact of earlier fuel price hikes continued to filter through the economy. On a monthly basis, consumer prices were flat (0.00% vs. -0.40% in June), following the first monthly decline recorded since July 2025.

Nigeria Private Sector Growth Moderates in July

  • Nigeria’s private-sector activity continued to expand in July 2026, although the pace of growth eased, with the Stanbic IBTC PMI falling to 52.5 from 53.4 in June. Growth remained supported by rising new orders, stronger customer demand, competitive pricing, and product launches, while business activity increased further, led by the agriculture and manufacturing sectors. Firms continued to increase employment and purchasing activity to meet higher workloads, although backlogs rose slightly amid logistical challenges.

South Africa Private Sector Expands for Second Straight Month

  • South Africa’s private-sector activity remained in expansion territory in July 2026, with the S&P Global PMI easing slightly to 50.3 from 50.5 in June, signaling a modest improvement in business conditions. While business activity returned to growth for the first time in three months, supported by softer inflationary pressures and improved operational efficiency, new orders contracted for a third consecutive month amid weak consumer demand, political protests, and competition from cheaper imports, although export orders increased for a second straight month.

South Africa FX Reserves Fall to Eight‑Month Low

  • South Africa’s gross foreign exchange reserves declined to USD 73.45 billion in July 2026, from USD 74.11 billion in June, marking their lowest level since November 2025. The decline was primarily driven by a drop in foreign currency reserves to USD 50.41 billion (vs. USD 51.22 billion in June), partly reflecting government foreign exchange payments, including the repayment of a USD 574.00 million foreign loan. In contrast, gold reserves increased to USD 16.38 billion (vs. USD 16.26 billion in June), supported by higher US Dollar gold prices, while SDR holdings rose to USD 6.67 billion (vs. USD 6.63 billion).

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